Consumers must ready themselves for possible power outages in June due to increased demand and “vulnerabilities” in the country’s electricity generation chain, an international climate and policy group warned.
The Luzon and Visayas grids are expected to experience scarcer power reserves mid-year as the dry season hits the country, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable (ICSC) said in a forum in Quezon City on Thursday.
Mindanao meanwhile will remain normal as the grid is projected to maintain normal reserves and is in fact capable of exporting power to other grids in the country, the group advised.
In the report entitled “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply from April to June 2025,” ICSC said the Visayas grid can maintain normal reserves in the second quarter of 2025 but is completely dependent on imports from Luzon and Mindanao.
The organization said power supply issues in the second quarter of each year have been a recurring problem in the country due to the country’s hot and dry season that traditionally increases demand and power consumption.
“Although elevated electricity demand during the summer contributes to power supply issues experienced in these months, forced outages of baseload power plants have constantly exacerbated the situation,” ICSC Chief Data Scientist Jephraim Manansala said.
Citing this year’s first yellow alert raised by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) over the Luzon grid, ICSC noted that seven baseload coal power plants were on outage last March 5, which resulted to a total of 2,495 megawatts (MW) of power being unavailable to the grid.
Three coal plants were also operating on reduced capacities on March 5, the organization reported.
“Power plant outages, especially unplanned ones, and plants running at a derated capacity, can severely disrupt the balance between supply and demand, significantly hindering the grid’s ability to meet the country’s growing energy needs — especially during peak demand hours,” Manansala explained.
ICSC reported said the Luzon grid will likely have normal reserves in April, with yellow alerts possible in May, and red alerts possible in June.
The Luzon grid is projected to export power to the Visayas grid through the 250 MW high voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnection from March 31 to June 1 to ensure sufficient reserves in Visayas.
However, it will need to restrict exports on June 2-8 due to reduced coal generation of around 842 MW forecasted by the NGCHP and the Department of Energy (DOE), potentially leading to red grid alert levels.
ICSC recommened that the DOE implement more focused monitoring based on local data in order for grid operators to effective respond to changing power requirements in different islands of the country. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)
