Counterproductive counterinsurgency

/in /by

By Sonny Africa

Development policymaking is hard enough as it is – the Philippines after so many decades of so many development plans is a case in point. Now the military wants to take that over as well? The government’s whole-of-nation approach where the military hijacks governance will just make the country’s maldevelopment worse.

Authoritarian creep

Pres. Rodrigo Duterte’s authoritarianism of course started with a big bloody bang – the thousands of urban poor the government killed in a show of intimidating force. The militarist takeover of government took a little bit longer but is well underway. The transformation has a thin veil of legality but the nation is as far away from real democracy as it has ever been.

The Duterte administration’s brand of militarism started with the National Security Policy (NSP) 2017-2022 it released in April 2017. Conspicuously, national security was defined broadly to “[encompass] virtually every aspect of national life and nation-building” where “economic development and security are inextricably linked”.

While conceptually valid, in retrospect these were less a sign of vision than gross and insidious ambition. It is difficult to credit a military establishment notorious for human rights violations, unwarranted violence, lying and deceit with having positive long-term aspirations. On the other hand, the appetite for dictatorship is easier to see.

The National Security Council (NSC) prepared the NSP. This collegial body includes many Cabinet members and legislators but is really dominated by the security sector – especially by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP).

The broad definition of national security was immediately used to give the military and police an entry point into everywhere else in government. Executive Order (EO) No. 16 was released simultaneously with the NSP. This directed that “all government departments and agencies, including government owned and controlled corporations (GOCCs) and local government units (LGUs), shall adopt the NSP 2017-2022 in the formulation and implementation of all their plans and programs which have national security implications”. This is a far-reaching mandate because, according to the NSP, virtually everything has national security implications.

This was followed by the National Security Strategy (NSS) in 2018. The NSS was prepared by National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon and presented as a “blueprint [to] foster better coordination, synchronization and cohesion of government functions”. Its sweeping strategy included “the combined, balanced and effective use of the instruments of national power, namely: political and legal, diplomatic, informational, intelligence, economic, and military and law enforcement”.

Ominously, Pres. Duterte called for Filipinos to “stand behind our national security apparatus” and “strengthen the foundations of a secure, peaceful, modern and prosperous Philippines”. Towards this, the president gradually appointed 73 military and police officials to civilian positions in at least 46 agencies. There are now more military and police officials in government than at any time since the Marcos dictatorship nearly 50 years ago.

They were made heads in 38 of these as Cabinet secretaries, director generals, chairpersons, executive directors, administrators or presidents. As it is, former military and police officials account for 11 of 50 cabinet and cabinet-level officials or one-fifth of the Cabinet.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte presides over a meeting with the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) at the Malacañan Palace on April 15, 2019. SIMEON CELI JR./PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO

Authoritarianism now

All this fell into place when Pres. Duterte issued EO No. 70 in December 2018 creating the so-called National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC). The EO invoked the armed conflict to justify creating the task force and institutionalizing a “whole-of-nation approach” that will “integrate and harmonize the various efforts of the whole of government and of all sectors of society”.

Pres. Duterte is National Task Force Commander and chairperson with Esperon as vice chairperson. This places Esperon second only to the president at the top of an expansive organizational structure encroaching on virtually every government agency that matters, reaching from the regional to the barangay level nationwide. They preside over 18 Cabinet officials and two private sector representatives.

The high-level task force includes the secretaries of national defense, interior and local government, and justice as well as the AFP chief of staff, PNP director general, National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) director general, and Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process. Propaganda is handled by the Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) Secretary.

To cover socioeconomic development concerns, the group also includes the secretaries of economic planning, finance, budget and management, public works and highways, agrarian reform, education, and social welfare and development, as well as the Presidential Adviser for Indigenous People’s Concerns, National Commission on Indigenous Peoples (NCIP) chairperson, and Technical Education and Skills Development Authority director general.

The 17 regional task forces (RTFs) under the NTF-ELCAC are each chaired by a Cabinet Officer for Regional Development and Security (CORDS) designated by the president. The military and police officials in the Cabinet are handy for this — eight (8) of the 17 Cabinet members appointed as CORDS are former military officers: Esperon (NSA), Carlito Galvez (Presidential Peace Adviser), Eduardo Año (DILG), Gregorio Honasan II (DICT), Roy Cimatu (DENR), Eduardo del Rosario (HUDCC), and Delfin Lorenzana (DND).

The RTFs supplant regional structures in place and merge the existing Regional Development Councils (RDCs) and Regional Peace and Order Councils (RPOC). RDCs are the highest policy-making and direction-setting bodies for overall socioeconomic development in the regions. The RDC is composed of all governors, mayors, and development-related line agency regional directors. Upon EO No. 70, RDCs are also adding active military and police officials as special non-voting members.

RPOCs take up major issues and problems affecting peace and order. RPOCs are also composed of all governors, mayors, peace and order-related line agency regional directors, plus AFP commanders. Similar task forces are organized at the provincial, city/municipal, and barangay level. In effect, all these far-reaching multi-stakeholder bodies are put in a direct chain of command under the NTF-ELCAC and the national security adviser. This cumulatively amounts to hundreds of task forces nationwide and potentially even thousands if barangay efforts are counted.

The NTF-ELCAC’s seemingly disproportionate budget of just Php522 million belies its influence. All the memorandum circulars implementing EO No. 70 are clear that “the budgetary requirements for the implementation of EO No. 70 may be authorized chargeable against the respective LGUs and agencies in accordance with EO 70”. Regular agency budgets are put at the service of the NTF-ELCAC.

The NTF-ELCAC is fully up and running. The first RTF-ELCAC was organized in CALABARZON in February 2019 and the first provincial PTF-ELCAC in Cavite in March soon after. The national task force approved its National Plan in its first meeting in April 2019, held in Malacañang.

Other regions and provinces followed suit to organize their respective task forces. One-day island group summits of regional task forces were held in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao in October to all culminate in a national summit with Pres. Duterte.

This year has already seen a frenzied surge of EO No. 70 implementation-related activity at every level of government across the country. This has gone far beyond armed conflict areas and the government’s militarism has intruded into schools, urban poor communities, offices, media, embassies, international agencies, and elsewhere. A National Capital Region (NCR) task force was even created in September 2019 even if there are no signs of armed conflict or insurgents in Metro Manila. The NCRTF-ELCAC is a hammer and activists, critics and political opposition are the nails it will be used on.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte presides over a meeting with the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) at the Malacañan Palace on April 15, 2019. SIMEON CELI JR./PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO

Hijacking development

EO No. 70 implementation includes weaponizing the law and criminalizing dissent. But it also in effect enables the military to hijack socioeconomic development policy for its militarist ends. Having construed national security and addressing the roots of armed conflict expansively, the national task force is broadly “authorized to evaluate, modify or integrate policies and programs” of government according to its plans.

The recent midterm update of the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022 is a case in point. This is regularly done for PDPs but there was something new this time around. Supplementary guidelines were issued to RDCs to “integrate” the NTF-ELCAC’s Cluster Implementation Plans in the updated regional development plans (RDPs) and regional development investment programs (RDIPs).

Accustomed processes were overridden and the NTF-ELCAC gave the RDCs plans to “mainstream” in the update. Regional planning committees were assigned to clusters as defined by the NTF-ELCAC, all of which had military officials from the defense department and AFP as members.

The national task force members include 18 government agencies. The various program clusters of the NTF-ELCAC implementation plan include most of these and 38 others, for 51 agencies in total. At least some of these agencies have created NTF-ELCAC “steering committees” to implement EO No. 70 and operationalize the national task force within their respective departments.

The problem with the national task force and the extensive machinery it creates is that it is, underneath a lot of development-speak and bureaucratese, still just another military scheme driven by a narrow-minded enemy-focused military mindset. It is essentially the Duterte administration identifying ‘enemies’ and using the full force of government against them.

EO No. 70 is not the military suddenly genuinely getting insights about the roots of underdevelopment and, much less, suddenly having the skills set to address this. The military is using the task forces to command resources for community programs, welfare services, and the like for its narrow counterinsurgency and anti-activism purposes. This muddles decision-making and prioritization according to actual development needs.

EO No. 70 is also being used to justify State security forces cracking down on development NGOs, people’s organizations, and all civil society groups whose advocacies the administration deems overly critical and putting it in a bad light. More to the point — the government is using all its political, legal, diplomatic, informational, intelligence, economic, military and police resources against any perceived domestic political opposition. In short, using all “the instruments of national power”.

The Duterte government is systematically going after organizations of workers, farmers, urban poor, youth, teachers, indigenous peoples, environment advocates, alternative media, cultural workers, disaster responders, and even researchers. Freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and even freedom of thought are under siege with the government deciding and enforcing what is and is not acceptable.

This gravely sets back prospects for real and democratic development. Curbing civil society suppresses a crucial check on government, stifles fresh development ideas upholding the rights of the majority, and constricts people’s participation in governance.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte presides over a meeting with the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) at the Malacañan Palace on April 15, 2019. KING RODRIGUEZ/PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO

What is it all for?

At one level it is the Duterte administration coming down hard on the strongest voices against its authoritarianism, corruption, and policies enriching elites at the expense of the people. It is the Duterte clique putting down organized opposition to its self-serving agenda to stay in power and enrich itself.

But it is also much more than that. The Duterte government has come but, as with others before, it will also go. Unfortunately, what is happening is also the State pushing obsolete neoliberalism forward by eliminating obstacles to the market and to capital dominating every aspect of Philippine society. The groups being attacked have their own stresses and versions but nonetheless share a vision for a more just, humane and democratic Philippines.

This is consequential for the country’s political and economic prospects. We are in the middle of the Left and social movements violently being put down, under a thin veneer of rule of law, to increase the power of capitalists, landlords, and political elites. Activists are targeted because their clear politics, concrete organizations, and advocacies threaten the ruling class’s grip on power.

The ruling class embraces the Duterte government because it increases their wealth and profits: tax cuts on the rich and big corporations; infrastructure to keep the comprador economy humming and to preserve real estate wealth; privatization of transport, water, health and education; wage repression; land monopolies; and market- and capital-friendly policies all around.

The Philippines is in dire need of reforms and the sheer scale of the problem demands system-wide thinking and massive mass movement solutions. Yet the heavy-handed authoritarianism and military meddling in governance will just stoke even more unrest. This includes polarizing the nation and actually fueling the radicalism, and revolutionary armed struggles that the Duterte administration is so fearful of. #

(Kodao publishes IBON.org’s reports and analyses as part of a content-sharing agreement.)

PH economy headed towards 3rd year of slow growth — IBON

/in /by

by IBON Media

Research group IBON said that the Philippine economy is on its way to a third straight year of slowing economic growth under the Duterte administration.

The group said that while the economy registered higher growth in the third quarter of 2019, the factors behind this are too weak and unsustainable.

The government recently reported 6.2% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2019.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) secretary Ernesto Pernia said that this means the Philippine economy is “surging” and was confident that the government could meet its 6% full-year growth target for 2019.

IBON said however that annual economic growth has been slowing since the start of the Duterte administration, falling from 6.9% in 2016, to 6.7% in 2017 and to 6.2% in 2018.

The group said that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 would need to be at least 7.4% just to match growth in 2018.

In the last four decades, the economy was only able to achieve 7.4% growth in the fourth quarter just once (in 1989), said the group.

IBON also noted that the 6.2% third quarter growth spurt is higher than the 5.5% of the previous quarter and 6% in third quarter 2018.

However, it is much lower than its peak 7.2% first quarter 2017 growth.

The third quarter growth was mainly due to increases in household spending, construction and government spending.

Household consumption rose by 5.9%, construction by 17.3%, and government spending by 9.6 percent.

IBON said that while household spending was faster than the 5.3% in the third quarter of 2018, this was still lower than the 5.7% average of the past decade.

The group also said that higher household consumption was most likely just driven by higher overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances this year.

But remittances have been slowing for years and the uptick is likely only momentary.

Construction accelerated from the 13.3% growth in the third quarter of last year.

IBON said however that this short-term stimulus is only while construction is ongoing.

Another question is how big and sustained infrastructure spending can be with government’s Build Build Build program faltering.

The group noted that infrastructure spending contracted to -4.3% in January-September 2019 from 45.9% in the same period last year.

 Accumulating debt could also be a problem if this reaches unpayable levels.

IBON noted that the most important sources of domestic demand and growth are showing signs of weakening.

Agriculture momentarily recovered with an increase of 3.1%, but it remains in long-term decline.

The manufacturing sector’s 2.4% growth is the slowest in 32 quarters or since the 2% clip in the third quarter of 2011.

Manufacturing has been stalling since the start of the year, said the group.

This is because it has become overly foreign-dominated and export-dependent and is adversely affected by the slowing global economy and the US-China trade war.

To reverse the economic slowdown, IBON said that the government can boost growth in a way that is both beneficial to the people and more sustainable.

There are redistributive measures that can be done right away and will be felt by the people.

These include immediate and meaningful wage hikes to spur greater consumption especially among lower income communities.

The wider informal economy will be stimulated.

Lowering consumption taxes will also increase their spending power. Growth can be boosted by higher taxes on the wealthy and large corporations if the revenues are spent on expanding social and economic services for the poor.

But the most sustainable source of growth in the long-run is developing domestic agriculture and building Filipino industry to create more jobs and raise incomes in the country, said the group. #

(Kodao publishes IBON.org’s reports and analyses as part of a content-sharing agreement.)

Inflation slowing due to a sluggish economy — IBON

/in /by

by IBON Media

Research group IBON said that despite reported slower inflation, daily expenses are still rising and too expensive for the majority of Filipinos who suffer low and stagnant incomes.

The group also said that slowing inflation mainly reflects a slackening economy.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported lower nationwide inflation at 0.8% in October 2019 from 0.9% the previous month and 6.7% in October last year.

Meanwhile, National Capital Region (NCR) inflation increased to 1.3% in October 2019 from 0.9% in September 2019 but was lower than the 6.1% inflation in October 2018.

The uptick in NCR inflation was due to higher annual inflation in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and clothing and footwear.

IBON executive director Sonny Africa said that lower inflation is generally better for poor and low-income consumers as slower price increases will weigh less on low wages and incomes.

He noted however that lower reported inflation is from a high base last year when prices dramatically rose. Yet some food items are still more expensive now than last year.

In Metro Manila, for example, the cost of pork, chicken, fish, eggs and many vegetables in the last week of October 2019 was much higher than in the same period last year.

The price of pork increased by Php50; chicken by Php30; tilapia by Php20; string beans by Php20; and potato and native pechay by Php15. Rice is a notable exception in being slightly cheaper.

Africa said however that the majority of Filipinos’ incomes are still far below what is needed to live decently and still eroding further despite reportedly lower inflation.

In NCR for instance, the real value of the minimum wage or taking inflation into account is actually lower today compared to November last year.

Measured at 2012 prices, the real value of the Php537 NCR minimum wage has fallen to Php453 today from Php459 in November 2018.

It is also likely that inflation is slowing because the economy is slowing from faltering investments, stalling infrastructure spending, and the global economic slowdown, said Africa.

So far under the Duterte administration, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has declined from 6.9% in 2016 to 6.7% in 2017 and 6.2% in 2018. The 5.5% growth in the second quarter of 2019 is the lowest in 17 quarters.

Foreign direct investments shrank by 39.8% from US$6.8 billion in January-July 2018 to US$4.1 billion in the same period in 2019.

Meanwhile, infrastructure spending growth contracted from 45.9% in January-September 2018 to -4.3% in the same period this year.

Africa said that lower inflation alone is meaningless if Filipinos especially the poor continue to be burdened with high prices and little to no incomes. The government should not ignore this nor the signs of a slowing economy.

Immediate steps for government should include supporting and developing domestic agriculture, as well as substantially increasing wages and salaries to give relief to Filipino households, Africa said. #

(Kodao publishes IBON.org’s reports and analyses as part of a content-sharing agreement.)

Agri sector slumps due to continuous government neglect

/in /by

by IBON Media

“Even prior to rice liberalization, the country has become increasingly dependent on food imports.”

Long-time government neglect and low prioritization has put the agriculture sector in a chronic crisis, said research group IBON.

The group said that this is in line with government’s advancement of neoliberal policies favoring local and foreign big business. The Duterte government continues this by giving minimal support to the agriculture sector.

IBON said that declining share in gross domestic product and agricultural productivity per capita, increasing import dependence, rising trade deficit, and widespread rural poverty are signs that this crisis is worsening. 

The agriculture sector’s share in the economy has shrunk from over 40% in the 1960s to less than 10% in 2018.

Agricultural productivity per capita peaked at Php7,862 in 1981, declined, and then was in a period of recovery from 1999-2008.

But agricultural productivity per capita again fell to Php7,052 in 2018, noted the group.

IBON also said that the country has become increasingly dependent on food imports even before rice liberalization this year.

For instance, garlic imports made up only 1.1% of the country’s consumption in 1990, but this spiked to 90% in 2017. Import dependency ratio also increased significantly with coffee (-7.7% to 56%); beef (8.5% to 36%); tuna (3.7% to 17%); onion (-14.3% to 15%); potato (0% to 15%); and pork (0% to 13%) in the same period.

Meanwhile, rice import dependency ratio declined from 9% in 1990 to 5% in 2016. But this rose to 6.6% in 2017 and is expected to be higher due to the influx of rice imports under the Rice Liberalization Law.

The agriculture trade deficit has also increased by 30 times from US$287 million in 1994 to US$8 billion in 2018.

In the first quarter of this year, the agriculture trade deficit was a staggering US$2.1 billion, said the group.

IBON said widespread rural poverty is another indicator of agriculture in crisis.

Official figures show that the poverty incidence among farmers (34.3%) and fisherfolk (34%) is higher than the national average (21.6%).

IBON estimates that, if based on more reasonable standards of poverty measurement, at least 90%, if not all farmers and fisherfolk, are impoverished.

This chronic agriculture crisis is due to government’s chronically low prioritization of the agriculture sector, said IBON.

The group noted that from 1981 until 2020, the annual average share of agriculture and agrarian reform was only 4.1% of the national budget.

This low priority of agriculture is being continued under the Duterte administration.

The group said that the 3.5% share of agriculture in the proposed 2020 budget is the lowest since 2004 (3.3%).

Also, from 2017 to 2020, the annual average share of agriculture in the national budget was only 3.6% – the lowest since the Ramos administration (3.5%).

The average share of agriculture was higher under Estrada (4.4%), Arroyo (4.7%), and Aquino (4.2%).

IBON said that immediate steps government should take to arrest the agriculture crisis is to wipe off if not significantly reduce all forms of loans including amortization for awarded lands, and to substantially increase support and subsidies for the agriculture and agrarian reform sectors.

It should also suspend, and eventually repeal, policies like the Rice Liberalization Law, that are harming domestic production and farmers’ livelihoods.

But to truly strengthen domestic agriculture, government needs to implement long-term policies that prioritize rural development over big business interests. #

IBON launches alternative to failed govt econ agenda

/in /by

by IBON Media

Research group IBON launched its campaign on People Economics to promote much-needed policy reforms that would really benefit the majority of Filipinos and engender genuine national development.

IBON held the forum “People Economics: May Magagawa!” at the College of Science Admin Auditorium, UP Diliman last October 10 to discuss why there is a need for and what the principles and policy outlines are of People Economics.

After four decades of neoliberal globalization and its market-driven policies, the group said that the country remains underdeveloped.

Many Filipinos are struggling with worsening poverty and jobs crisis, while only a wealthy few are benefiting. The global economic slowdown is not letting up, and in response several countries, especially the big capitalist powers, are becoming increasingly protectionist, the group said.

IBON said that People Economics is an alternative to government’s failed neoliberalism.

This draws from the policies and demands of the people’s movement, as well as IBON’s more than 41 years of experience in advocating for social and economic reforms.

The group said that it envisions a Philippines that can be transformed into a modern industrialized nation that is more equal, humane, and ecologically sustainable. It lays the foundation for a future where the Filipino people continuously change society for the better.

People economics is comprised of six pillars: Develop the countryside; Build Filipino industries; Protect the environment; Uphold people’s rights and welfare; Finance development; and Strive for sovereignty and independence.

IBON said that People Economics can be further articulated and enriched as an alternative to neoliberalism. The contributions of the progressive movement and other advocates for genuine change is needed to come up with the most concrete and comprehensive solutions to the country’s social and economic problems, the group said. #

(Kodao publishes IBON.org’s reports and analyses as part of a content-sharing agreement.)

IBON questions CITIRA job creation claims

/in /by

by IBON Media

Research group IBON said the Department of Finance’s (DOF) claim of over a million jobs to be created by corporate income tax cuts under the proposed Corporate Income Tax and Incentives Rationalization Act (CITIRA) is imaginary.

The group said that the DOF is hyping job creation to justify implementation of regressive tax measures. CITIRA will increase corporate profits and executive pay without increasing jobs or even wages, IBON said.

The group recalled that the DOF repeatedly claimed that the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law would benefit “99%” of Filipinos or households when they were lobbying for this.

The DOF did so despite knowing, on the contrary, that the poorest 17.2 million Filipino families would eventually be burdened by additional consumption taxes especially after the smokescreen of temporary cash transfers, said IBON.

“The DOF is now claiming that CITIRA ‘will benefit more than 99% of companies’ and that the proposed corporate income tax (CIT) cuts will create 1.5 million jobs. There is no legitimate basis for such a claim,” said IBON executive director Sonny Africa.

“The DOF seeks to justify even more tax cuts for the rich following TRAIN’s reduction of personal income taxes (PIT),” Africa added.

“The DOF’s suddenly claiming that CITIRA will create jobs is suspicious,” Africa said.

He noted that there were no job generation estimates when the bill was first submitted to Congress in early 2018 as TRAIN Package 2, when it was passed by the House of Representatives (HOR) in September 2018 as the renamed Tax Reform for Attracting Better and High-Quality Opportunities (TRABAHO) bill, nor even at the first Senate hearing on it right after.

Africa recalled that DOF undersecretary Karl Chua said outright at the Senate hearing: “We do not see a job impact.”

Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) director Dominique Tutay on the other hand answered pointedly: “Mayroon po [mawawalan ng trabaho].”

Africa said that it was only on October 17, 2018, that the DOF suddenly declared in a press release that the proposed law would create 1.4 million jobs.

He added: “The DOF’s job generation claim is unfounded speculation that has no theoretical or empirical basis.”

“The new jobs will supposedly come from businesses ‘reasonably’ spending half of their increased profits from the lower corporate income tax ‘in growing their businesses’ but companies already have enough profits as it is,” Africa said.

He cited DOF reports that large firms account for some three-fourths (75%) of corporate income tax collections.

Africa pointed out that the profits of the country’s Top 1000 biggest corporations have been growing some 12% annually in the past decade, and have more than tripled from Php415 billion in 2008 to Php1.33 trillion in 2017.

“Simplistically claiming that corporate tax cuts will magically create 1.5 million jobs is deceitful as the argument opportunistically ignores key economic realities,” said Africa.

He pointed out that global growth is slowing, trade is weakening, foreign investment flows are falling, and protectionism is growing, while Philippine economic growth has already slowed to its lowest in 17 quarters.

“It is more likely that CITIRA’s tax cuts will just go to increasing corporate profits and justify increasing already exorbitantly high executive pay. They will certainly not go to increasing wages because corporations have kept real wages flat for over a decade-and-a-half despite rising labor productivity,” concluded Africa. #

(Kodao publishes IBON.org’s reports and analyses as part of a content-sharing agreement.)

Duterte admin banning aid to hide human rights violations

/in /by

by IBON Media

Research group IBON, a member of the multisectoral network AidWatch, said that the Duterte administration is stopping talks on new official development assistance (ODA) from 18 countries as part of its efforts to hide the worsening domestic human rights situation.

This includes Spain which is supporting the Commission on Human Rights (CHR).

The group said that the show of standing up against foreign intervention in the country is hollow because the administration continues to receive much more ‘aid’ from China and the United States (US) despite their much larger and more damaging intervention in the Philippines.

The administration issued a memorandum on August 27, 2019 directing the suspension of all negotiations and signing of loan and grant agreements with the 18 countries of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council that recently supported a resolution to investigate human rights violations in the country.

These include: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Fiji, Iceland, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Slovakia, Spain, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Uruguay.

AidWatch, a network actively working with different government agencies and stakeholders on ODA issues, noted that as of the first quarter of 2019, the 18 countries combined account for only US$525 million or less than 3% of the Philippines’ active loans and grants.

This is because only three of the 18 countries have active ODA here — Australia (US$476 million), Italy (US$41 million) and Spain (US$8.1 million).

There is also just an additional US$414 million in the pipeline from Australia (US$82 million), Austria (US$177 million), and the UK (US$155 million).

Active grants and loans mostly go to education, disaster management, agrarian reform and peace-building projects.

Spain however also provides almost US$6 million in grants as institutional support for the CHR under the Project Go-Just Human Rights-CHR project.

This started in February 2016 and is due to end in December 2019.

Aid in the pipeline is meanwhile overwhelmingly for transport infrastructure especially bridges, the group noted.

The president’s memo says that the government is in the process of ‘assessing’ relations with these countries.

AidWatch said that this is clearly a signal not just to the 18 countries but to the international community that it will not take any criticism about its human rights record and indeed that the only narrative about the human rights situation it allows will be its own sanitized version.

The administration has already said that it will not cooperate with the UN on any such investigation and that it will block the entry of any UN special rapporteurs.

The group said that this is however clearly not a principled stand against foreign intervention but a self-serving stand to cover up massive and rising human rights violations stemming from its violent ‘war on drugs’ and repression of activists and political opposition.

The Duterte administration continues to accept US$365 million in active ODA from China and looking to as much as US$10.6 billion more despite its gross intrusiveness in the West Philippine Sea, said the group.

It is also accepting US$887 million in active ODA and US$276 million in military aid over 2016-2020 from the US despite Philippine territory being used as a US military outpost hosting troops, warplanes, war materiel, equipment and bases.

IBON said that notwithstanding the president’s swagger and rhetoric, the country is clearly still under the thrall of big foreign powers and still wanting genuinely independent foreign policy. #

Job creation volatile, mostly of poor quality work

/in /by

by IBON Media

Research group IBON said that the recently reported job generation is mostly in poor quality work and confirms volatile labor market conditions rather than a strengthening economy.

The group made the statement after the recent release of seemingly favorable employment figures and warned against complacency.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported an increase in the number of employed by 2.3 million and an increase in the number of unemployed by 103,000 in July 2019 from the previous year.

The employment and unemployment rates stayed the same as last year at 94.6% and 5.4%, respectively.

IBON however said that the extreme volatility in the labor market since 2016, for instance, should temper overenthusiasm that the economy and the labor force situation is improving.

Millions of Filipinos are making do with poor quality work and hundreds of thousands more are in and out of work.

The group recalled that the reported 2.3 million additional employment in 2016 reversed to 664,000 net job losses in 2017.

In 2018, 2.4 million new jobs were reported generated in the January labor force survey round, measured year on year, but this reversed to 218,000 net job losses in the October round.

The situation remains as volatile so far this year, ranging from 387,000 net job losses in January 2019 to the recently reported 2.3 million job creation in July 2019.

This volatility indicates Filipinos struggling to find work where they can on a day-to-day basis rather than a strengthening economy creating steady jobs paying decent incomes, IBON stressed.

Looking at employed persons in terms of hours worked, 2.2 million or an overwhelming part of the net 2.3 million additional employed in July 2019 was actually just in part-time work of less than 40 hours.

This caused the share of part-time work in employment to markedly rise from 28.2% to 31.8 percent.

Looking at employed persons by class of worker, IBON pointed out that the biggest employment increases were actually in low-earning, insecure, and informal work, as well as in unpaid family work.

The number of self-employed without paid employees grew by 1.1 million and the number of unpaid family workers grew by 854,000.

Finally, IBON said that looking at the three biggest job-creating sectors also does not give confidence.

The sectors creating the most jobs included wholesale and retail trade which grew by 820,000, and accommodation and food service by 292,000.

These subsectors are notorious for high informality and uncertainty, the group said.

IBON noted the 716,000 increase in agricultural employment but pointed out that this is likely only momentary because agricultural employment is in long-term decline especially from lack of government support for the sector.

IBON also commented on the underemployment rate falling significantly from 17.2% in July 2018 to 13.9% in July 2019.

This is equivalent to the 7 million underemployed last year falling to just 6 million this year.

The group said that while falling underemployment is commonly used as a proxy for improving quality of work, the latter is not necessarily what is happening.

Underemployment refers to employed persons wanting additional hours of work in their present job, an additional job, or a new job with longer working hours.

IBON explained that the large drop in the underemployed is possibly only because workers are already working such long hours that they do not want additional hours in their present job, cannot take on an additional job, or cannot imagine a new job with even longer hours.

The breakdown of reported underemployed persons is not inconsistent with this, the group said.

The number of those working 40 hours and over in a week, or the invisibly underemployed, fell by a huge 1.5 million from 3.7 million in July 2018 to 2.2 million in July 2019.

Those who worked less than 40 hours, or the, visibly underemployed, meanwhile, increased by 352,000, hence the net decrease of some 1.1 million total underemployed.

IBON said that while more employment is always desirable, government should ensure that jobs are decent and sustainable.

But as long as government neglects the development of domestic agriculture and industries to generate stable and quality work, the jobs crisis will continue to worsen, and Filipinos will keep grappling with poor job prospects. #

Scrap provincial bus ban, find pro-people solution to traffic–IBON

/in /by

Government should find another way of decongesting Metro Manila’s major thoroughfare instead of aggravating the inconveniences of hundreds of thousands of provincial bus commuters, research group IBON said.

Commuters’ welfare should be the primary consideration of the Duterte administration in addressing transport woes but its approach should be comprehensive and regulation should cover private vehicles as well, said the group.

During a hearing conducted by the Senate Committee on Public Services, IBON supported calls to scrap the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA)’s Regulation Number 19-002, which aims to remove all provincial public utility bus (PUB) terminals from the entire length of EDSA in order to ease traffic.

That provincial buses are instead directed to load and unload in integrated terminals in Sta. Rosa, Laguna for PUBs coming from the south, in Paranaque for those with terminals in Pasay City, and in Valenzuela City for those coming from the north, is inconsiderate of hundreds of thousands of commuters who have to take the provincial bus regularly, the group said.

IBON said that the MMDA regulation nitpicks on provincial buses servicing a big number of commuters without addressing the fact that private cars make up most of daily EDSA traffic and pollution.

Based on MMDA and commuter network Move Metro Manila/ Komyut figures, IBON estimates that provincial buses move up to 425,000 commuters, while cars plying EDSA move at least 370,000.

Cars, however, comprise 65% of traffic and also contribute more to pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, noted the group.

Buses, meanwhile, 66% of which are provincial, take up only 3.5 percent.

Metro Manila’s transport system lacking a last-mile system makes relocating provincial bus terminals to limited spots more difficult for provincial bus commuters, IBON added.

Memo 19-002 adds another layer instead of simplifying the transportation process for commuters.

It not only aggravates their plight in combating traffic but even adds cost due to additional rides for example.

IBON said that in other countries, last-mile solutions include publicly available shuttle rides or bicycle infrastructure that ensure seamless mobility from a central hub or terminal to a passenger’s final destination.

IBON said that the bus ban also disregards how many ordinary passengers live in neighboring provinces but work in the National Capital Region (NCR) for lack of job opportunities elsewhere. 

Taking the train is no viable alternative because the country’s rail systems and interlinkage remain quite underdeveloped to say the least, said the group.

The public Philippine National Railways has not been restored to its full potential and only runs from Tondo to Laguna; the other public Light Rail Transit (LRT) systems operate only within Metro Manila.

The private Metro Rail Transit 3, meanwhile, traverses EDSA but only partially, and has a record of multiple breakdowns and mishaps due to inefficient management regardless of fare hikes.

Looming public utility jeep (PUJ) phaseout worsens the scenario and not only for provincial bus commuters, said IBON.

This is because PUJs currently play a proxy role in first mile and last mile functions, or in taking commuters to and from areas near central transport hubs.

IBON said that traffic solutions that are arbitrary and inimical to the public such as the bus ban should be rescinded. Instead, government should forge a pro-people solution to traffic woes that can start with conducting genuine consultations with affected sectors for all mass transport endeavors. 

The group added that congestion due to too many private cars can be checked, such as with a congestion tax, stricter street parking rules, and perhaps even curbing car ownership.

It may also be necessary, IBON said, to conduct an audit of road and rail safety including the accountability of corporations and agencies involved.

As with other public services, privatization and the user-fees policy should be stopped in mass transport, said the group.

In its transport policy study titled “Mass Transport System in Metro Manila and the Quest for Sustainability”, IBON said that government’s direction should be to craft a sustainable mass transport system: It should be efficient – meaning shortest travel time, shortest possible distance, and least changes in transport mode. It should be reliable, where expected travel time is actual travel time, and unnecessary waiting is minimized. It should be accessible – meaning infrastructure is easy to access, and affordable as well as considerate of the specific needs of various sectors. It should be safe to prevent harm and ensure pedestrian-friendly conditions. It must also be environmentally sound using clean and energy-efficient fuels and promoting non-motorized transport such as cycling and walking. #

Duterte’s midterm: change for the worse

/in /by

(IBON 2019 Midyear Birdtalk Briefing Paper economic situation highlights)

The country’s slowing economy, and worsening jobs crisis and poverty disputes the Duterte administration’s hype of economic gains. IBON said that this is bound to worsen if the Duterte administration continues unopposed on its current neoliberal trajectory wherein the interests of big foreign and local business prevail to the detriment of millions of Filipinos, especially the poor.

Economic growth slowing since the start of the administration.Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data show that gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been slowing in the 11 quarters since the start of the Duterte administration from 7.1% in the third quarter of 2016 to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2019. There was a momentary increase to 7.2% in the third quarter of 2017 but growth fell rapidly after this. Notably, growth was slowing even before the budget impasse and election ban on infrastructure spending.

High real unemployment. Computing according to the original definition of unemployment for comparability would show that the real unemployment rate in 2018 is 10.1% and the real number of unemployed is 4.6 million. These are much worse than the already high 9.0% unemployment rate and 4 million unemployed in 2016, again computed according to the original definition. In contrast, officially released figures for 2018 were a grossly underreported 5.3% and 2.3 million, respectively.

The record real unemployment last year is a direct result of how only an annual average of 81,000 new jobs have been created since the start of the Duterte administration, from 41.0 million employed in 2016 increasing by 162,000 to 41.2 million in 2018. To put this into context and even granting that the administration is just at its midpoint, this is so far the worst employment generation post-Marcos.

Lowest and least frequent wage hikes under Duterte. The Duterte administration is so far making the worst record on wage hikes of all post-Marcos administrations. In the NCR, for instance, it has only given an average of one wage hike every 18 months. The frequency of wage hikes previously ranged from one every 16 months under Arroyo to one every 10 months under Ramos. Over the two wage hikes under Duterte, the nominal value of the wage increased by only 9.4% – compared to a range of 11.5% by Benigno Aquino III to 45.9% by Corazon Aquino over their respective first two wage hikes.

Poverty underreported. IBON estimates on Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) data in 2015 found that the poorest 50% or 11.4 million families had monthly incomes of just Php15,000 or less, and the poorest 60% or 13.6 million families just some Php18,000 or less.

Inequality worsening. The net worth of the country’s richest Filipinos and profits of the largest corporations continue to grow, in some cases even outpacing economic growth. The net worth of the 10 richest Filipinos grew from Php2.5 billion in 2016 to Php2.7 billion in 2018. The net worth of the 40 richest Filipinos grew from Php3.7 billion to Php3.8 billion in the same period. The net worth of the 40 richest as percentage of GDP was 21.9% in 2018.

Agriculture in crisis, manufacturing stalling. Agriculture has been left to perform chronically poorly. The sector grew by just 0.8% last year and in the first quarter of 2019. This is just around half the growth pace of 1.5% in the 2010s and not even a third of the 2.9% clip in the 2000s. Employment in agriculture has fallen by 1.1 million between 2016 and 2018, with an initial further 376,000 losses reported in April 2019 from the same period last year.

Manufacturing already appears to be stalling with growth of just 4.9% in 2018 – the slowest since 2012 – and slowing further to 4.6% in the first quarter of 2019. The share of manufacturing in total employment of just 8.8% in 2018 is actually even much lower than its 10.1% share in 1990 and 11% in 1990. These are despite the sector growing by 22.1% between 2016 and 2018, according to national accounts data.

Poorest land distribution. Lands covered by the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) should have been distributed by 1998. This deadline was reset twice, yet until now 100% distribution has not been met. To add to this injustice, distribution is slow and is even going at a slower pace than before under the Duterte administration. Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR) land distribution accomplishment in the period 2016-June 2019 is just at an average of 2,920 hectares monthly. This is much less than under Benigno Aquino III (8,254 hectares, July 2010-2015), Arroyo (9,047 hectares, January 2001-June 2010), Estrada (11,113 hectares, July 1998-2000), Ramos (26,389 hectares, July 1992-June 1998), and Corazon Aquino (14,142 hectares, July 1987-June 1992).

Build Build Build, for whom?Over the 2016-2017 period, the biggest concentration of gross value in public construction was in Pres. Duterte’s home region of Davao (Region XI) accounting for 14.1% of the total. The increase in Davao is notable in almost doubling from 7.9% over the period 2010-2015 to 14.1% in 2016-2017. Close Duterte allies have reportedly been among the beneficiaries of the surge in Davao construction projects.

Mounting debt. The government is already borrowing heavily. Total outstanding debt of the national government stood at Php7.9 trillion as of May 2019 implying a total increase of Php2 trillion since the start of the Duterte administration. In nominal terms, this is equivalent to an average monthly increase in debt of Php56.2 billion, which is over two-and-a-half times that of the Arroyo administration (Php21.2 billion) and nearly three times that of the previous Aquino administration (Php19 billion).

Truth about TRAIN. The Duterte administration has tried to divert from the regressive nature of its tax reforms by repeatedly claiming that it benefits “99% of taxpayers” and giving the impression that 99% of Filipinos gain from TRAIN Package One. The reality however is that only 5.5 million personal income taxpayers coming largely from the highest income groups will gain from TRAIN’s personal income tax cuts. An additional two million taxpayers are minimum wage earners and so previously already exempt. On the other hand, the poorest 17.2 million or eight out of 10 (76%) Filipino families will pay TRAIN’s higher taxes on consumption goods including petroleum products and sugar-sweetened beverages. #