Weather experts warn of massive agricultural damage through severe water shortages and high temperatures due to a “Super El Niño” feared to affect the Philippines and neighboring countries in the west Pacific within the year.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday that the probability of a moderate to strong El Niño in the last quarter of the year until early 2027 has risen from 55 percent in March to 92 per cent this month.
“This will be upgraded into El Niño Alert this month, projecting the phenomenon to emerge in from July to September,” PAGASA administrator Nathaniel Servando advised on Wednesday.
PAGASA said El Niño historically causes reduced rice and corn yields, increased pest infestations, higher fuel costs for irrigation pumps, and diminished income for farmers and fisher folk, leading to food insecurity.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years. It causes weakened trade winds that disrupt global weather, resulting in increased flooding, droughts, and higher global temperatures.
Unlike its counterpart weather phenomenon called La Niña that is exemplified by unusual volume of rain, El Niño is mostly characterized by below-normal rainfall and extreme heat lasting months.
“During El Niño, rainfall conditions are expected to be below normal,” Servando said.
The phenomenon, however, produces stronger typhoons and destructive flooding when they occur.
The weather expert said it is expected that Indonesia will likewise experience as its neighboring country’s projections are consistent with the Philippines’.
“Indonesia’s climate is similar to the Philippines, and the local climate is influenced by climate variability such as El Niño,” Servando said. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)
