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Sa pagtindi ng kahirapan, patindihin ang paglaban

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Ni Nuel M. Bacarra

Sa panahon ng batas militar noong kalagitnaan ng dekada sitenta, umabot ng ₱8.00 ang isang salóp ng bigas sa Mindoro. Katumbas ang isang salóp ng 2¼ kilo o halos ₱3.55 bawat kilo. Noong umabot na sa ganito ang presyo ng bigas, may pagkakataon na may kisa o halong mais na ang kanin sa hapag. Hindi pa uso ang pangyayaring El Niño noon subalit ganito na ang larawan ng kahirapan noon sa probinsya.

Sa ngayon, ang bigas ay naglalaro na sa halos ₱55 – ₱60 kada kilo para sa regular milled at well-milled na bigas. Ang implasyon sa bigas ay umaabot sa 23.7% na pinakamataas sa loob ng 15 taon. Kasabay pa ito ng halos kada linggo na pagtaas ng presyo ng langis na nagiging sanhi naman ng pagtaas ng presyo rin ng iba pang pangunahing bilihin.

Todo-higpit na ang sinturon ng karaniwang pamilya dahil lalong tumitindi ang kahirapan. Hanggang saan ang sukdulan ng pagtaas ng presyo ng bigas? Sa mahigit limang dekadang singkad, may ibayong pagtindi ang anyo ng kahirapan sa bansa sa bawat dekada, sa bawat taon. Marami na ang hindi nag-aalmusal sa ngalan ng pagtitipid. Sa ganitong kalagayan, tila ang kulang na lamang ay ang pamiliin ng gobyerno ang taumbayan kung nais nilang kumain ng dalawang beses isang araw o minsanan na lamang.

Hagupit ng kalikasan at kainutilan

Noong nakaraang buwan mayroong magsasakang nagpakamatay na sa isla ng Mindoro dahil natuyo na lamang ang kanyang pananim dahil sa sobrang init na dulot ng El Niño at walang napakinabangan dito. Sa unang pagtaya ng Department of Science and Technology, 48 na mga prubinsya ang maapektuhan ng malalang tagtuyot at 24 naman ang makararanas ng dry spell. Tagtuyot kung dumaranas ang isang lugar ng limang sunud-sunod na buwan ng matinding init bunga ng kawalan o mas mababang porsyento ng ulan habang maikakatergorya ang isang lugar na nasa ilalim ng dry spell kung nakakaranas ng tatlong magkakasunod na buwan na ‘di umuulan.

Ang El Niño ay ang pag-init ng ibabaw ng karagatan na mataas kaysa karaniwan na temperatura sa gitna at silangang bahagi ng Pasipiko. Epekto na ito ng pagsalaula sa kalikasan ng mga tao sa kumpas ng malalaking korporasyon sa buong mundo na walang humpay na gumagamit ng fossil fuel na nagpapataas sa temperatura ng karagatan dahil sa carbon dioxide. Ang malalaking tipak ng yelo sa tuktok a talampakan ng mundo ay natutunaw na nagpapataas naman ng lebel ng tubig na nagdudulot naman ng pagbaha at pagkawala ng mga natural na tirahan ng mga hayop at halaman na nabubuhay sa tubig.

Ang El Niño at La Niña (kabaligtaran naman ng una, na mas madalas ang insidente ng pagbaha dahil sa mga bagyo at habagat) ay siklo na pamalagian nating dinaranas dahil sa pagbabago ng temparatura ng karagatan. Ayon sa mga eksperto, nagaganap ang siklo tuwing 2 – 9 na taon at tumatagal ng siyam hanggang 12 buwan. Sa anunsyo ng Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration o PAGASA noong huling kwarto ng 2023, mararamdaman ang epekto ng El Niño sa bansa sa unang kwarto ng 2024 hanggang Abril. Subalit sa pabatid nitong huling linggo ng Marso, maaaring tumagal ang El Niño hanggang Agosto kung saan ilang prubinsya pa ang makararanas ng tagtuyot at dudugtong naman ang La Niña na kailangang paghandaan ng bansa. Nitong unang linggo namanng Abril, tanging ang Batanes at Saranggani na lamang ang deklaradong mga prubinsyang hindi tinamaaan ng El Niño sa buong bansa.

Pero sa halip na paghandaan ito nang lubos ng pamahalaan sa pamamagitan ng mas masusing syentipikong pag-aaral sa mga epekto nito at kahandaan na alalayan ang mamamayan sa pamamagitan ng pagbibigay ng ayuda sa mga apektadong sektor laluna sa mga magsasaka, mas minabuti nitong pairalin ang korupsyon at kalingain ang mga rice trader kaysa sa mga magsasaka at iba pang sektor na ibayong nagpasiklab sa damdamin ng mga mamamayang direktang apektado ng sakuna.

Ang mga kahingian ng sektor-magsasaka sa panahon ng El Nino. (Larawan ni N. Bacarra/Kodao)

Singil sa Anomalya

Sa ganitong dinaranas na sakuna, litaw ang tagibang na prayoridad ng gobyernong Bongbong Marcos Jr. Mas tiniyak ang katiwalian at ang pagbibigay ng pabor sa mga negosyante kaysa pagsilbihan ang maralitang mamamayan at higit na mga nangangailangan.

Pumutok ang isyu ng pagbebenta ng National Food Authority (NFA) ng mga lumang imbak na bigas kamakailan. Ibinenta ng mga opisyal ng ahensya ang 75,000 sako ng bigas sa halagang ₱25/kilo sa rice traders sa panahong ang tinging presyo ng bawat kilo ng bigas ay nasa ₱70 /kilo ayon sa imbestigasyon ng mababang kupulungan ng Kongreso. O di kaya naman kaya ay inilagak ang mga istak na bigas sa ipinagmamalaking tindahan ng Kadiwa para mapakinabangan ng maralitang mamamayan.

Hindi na ito bago sa NFA. Noong 2021, nagbenta rin ang ahensya ng 5.6 milyong sako ng bigas at apat na milyong sako noong 2022 sa rice traders. Ang kaibahan sa kasalukuyan, nasa yugto ang bansa ng pananalasa ng El Niño na disin sana’y maaaring gawing pang-ayuda sa mga biktima na dumaranas ng gutom at sa mga magsasakang matinding tinatamaan nito. Malaking tulong sa mamamayang nagugutom at kung ipinamahagi ito sa presyo na katumbas ng pagbebenta sa mga rice trader.

Hindi kayang tabunan ng diumanong mahigit isang bilyong pisong halaga ng suporta mula sa Department of Agriculture (DA) sa mga magsasaka ang katiwalian sa NFA. Sa pagkakataong ito na sinasalanta ng hagupit ng El Niño ang kabuhayan ng pinakamalaking bahagdan ng populasyon, hindi katanggap-tanggap ang kalagayan na habang nagdurusa ang mamamayan, kumikita sa katiwalian ang mga ahensya ng gobyerno at sa prayoridad na ibinibigay sa mga kasabwat sa mga maanomalyang gawain.

Nitong Abril 3, kinalampag ng mga magsasaka at mga tagasuporta nila ang tarangkahan ng pambansang tanggapan ng NFA sa Quezon City para singilin ang matataas na upisyal ng ahensya at papanagutin ang mga ito. Bukod pa rito ay humihingi ang mga magsasaka ng kumpensasyon sa pagkalugi nila dahil sa kapabayaan ng gubyerno para paghandaan ang sakuna.

“Nasaan na ang imbestigasyon na ginagawa ng Department of Agriculture at ng Kongreso na hanggang ngayon ay wala pa ring napapanagot. Hindi sapat na i-suspend ng anim na buwan ang mga namuno doon sa pagbebenta ng 75,000 bags na bigas. Yung mga ginawa din nila na pagpa-padlock sa 79 na warehouses ay hindi rin makatarungan bagkus yung mga mahigit 100,000 bags pa ng bigas sa mga warehouse na ‘yan ay kagyat nang ipamahagi sa mga biktima ng mga kalamidad kung hindi man ay direktang ibenta ito diretso sa mamamayang Pilipino na naghahanap ng mababang presyo ng bigas,” pahayag ni Cathy Estavillo, tagapagsalita ng Bantay Bigas Network noong Abril 3 sa harap ng tanggapan ng NFA.

Ang kahirapan ng mga magsasaka ay sinisingil nila dahil sa pagiging kontra-magsasaka at kontra-mamamayan at inutil na gobyerno tulad ng pahayag naman ni Danilo Ramos, tagapangulo ng Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas.

“Ang mga patubig, walang tubig! Kaya po mayroong dating umaani nang otsenta, ngayon ay siyam na kaban. At katulad po ng inyong lingkod, marami sa ibang lalawigan, hindi nag-ani. Wala na ngang lupa, gutóm!” ani Ka Daning.

“[D]apat po nating makita kung bakit may krisis sa pagkain, El Niño at kalamidad ay dahil mismo sa gubyernong inutil, kontra-magsasaka, kontra-mamamayan. Ang sabi ng mga magsasaka, aanhin pa ang damo kung patay na ang kabayo? Matagal na po naming hiling ang ₱15,000.00 na tulong-ayuda pero hanggang ngayon ay wala! Pero pag sa byahe, pag sa ChaCha (charter change) meron! Kaya mula ngayon hanggang sa hinaharap, palakasin natin ang ating paglaban! Panagutin ang rehimen!” dagdag n glider-magsasaka.

Si Ka Daning Ramos ng KMP (harap) at si Cathy Estavillo ng Bantay Bigas (likod) / Larawan ni N. Bacarra/Kodao

Tuluy-tuloy na pakikibaka

Umabot na ang pinsala ng El Niño sa agrikultura sa mahigit ₱1.2 bilyon ayon sa huling ulat nitong Abril 3 ng National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. Ang halagang ito ang tinatayang katumbas ng 44,845.42 metric tons na pinsala sa agrikultural na produkto. Umaabot sa 17 lugar sa bansa ang nakakaranas ng matinding kalamidad na sangkot ang 84,731 pamilya.

Kung itatapat ang halaga ng pinsala sa ayudang ipinangangalandakan ng DA, lalabas na kulang ito batay sa aktwal na tala ng mga pinsala sa mga prubinsyang malupit na tinamaan ng sakuna. Kung ang isang bag ay umaabot ng 50 kilo, aabot ng ₱93.75 milyon ang halaga ng naibenta ng NFA kamakailan lang. Kung kukwentahin din ang naibenta noong 2021 at 2022 na umaabot sa ₱12 bilyon, malaking bagay na sana itong pagkukunan ng ayuda at kumpensasyon sa mga magsasaka sa ngayon.

Subalit hindi ganito ang kalakaran ng “korupsyon at transaksyong sindikato sa gubyerno.” Ang pondong mula sa buwis ng mamamayang Pilipino ay pribadong inaangkin ng mga sangkot na tiwaling mga opisyal sa gubyerno.

May mandato dati ang NFA na bilhin ang mga aning palay ng magsasaka na mabuting bagay sana para sa mga magsasaka. Subalit nang maging batas ang R.A. 11203 o ang Rice Tariffication Law, naging inutil ang NFA dito at naging instrumento pang lalo sa katiwalian.

Ang mga pesanteng nagprotesta sa NFA. (Larawan ni N. Bacarra/Kodao)

Pinapatay na ang mga magsasaka ng kawalan at kakulangan ng lupang masasaka dahil ang mga nagsiupong rehimen mula noong panahon ng diktadura ay kundi man mga panginoong maylupa at mga kumprador na kasabwat ng mga imperyalistang dayuhan sa pagpapanatili ng pyudal at malapyudal na kaayusan sa bansa. Hanggang ngayon ay usapin sa mga magsasaka ang paggigiit ng pagkakaroon ng tunay na reporma sa lupa. Iniaasa sa ngayon sa importasyon ng mga pangunahing agrikultural na produkto na kayang likhain dito sa bansa.

Walang ibang aasahan ang pinakamalaking pwersa sa produksyon ng bansa at iba pang sektor ng lipunan kundi ang patuloy na ipaglaban ang paggigiit ng tunay na reporma sa lupa at pambansang industriyalisasyon. Nilalamon ang sistema ng mga imperyalistang imposisyon ng liberalisasyon, pribatisasyon, deregulasyon na lubos na ipinaghihirap ng mamamayang Pilipino at ikinayayaman naman ng papet na rehimen at mga kasabwat nila sa bansa.

Siklo ang daranasin nating natural na delubyo subalit permanente ang kahayukan sa kapangyarihan, katiwalian at kainutilan ng mga papet na rehimen. Kaya dapat tuluy-tuloy na kumiklos ang mga magsasaka at manggagawa at ang iba pang sektor para baguhin ang sistematikong pagsasamantala at pang-aaping ito sa mamamayang Pilipino. #

Groups renew call to repeal oil deregulation law after today’s big-time price hike

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By Nuel M. Bacarra

Transport group Pagkakaisa ng mga Samahan ng Tsuper at Operator Nationwide (PISTON) condemned the big-time oil price hike that took effect today, August 8, and demanded that the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. government repeal the Oil Deregulation Law and suspend the expanded value added and excise tax on petroleum products.

According to the group, the increases on fuel prices are triggered by the Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Act (Republic Act 8479) that had been wreaking havoc on the livelihood of public utility vehicles (PUV) drivers and small operators since the start of its implementation in 1998.

For the fifth consecutive week since last month, oil companies implemented price increases, this time to an average of P4.10 increase per liter of diesel and P0.50 per liter of gasoline.

Today’s oil price increase had been the steepest since July 11.

PISTON national president Mody Floranda said, “Oil price increases in the country are expected by the Department of Energy to continue in the succeeding weeks, and the inaction of the Marcos administration (on petitions to repeal the law) is a direct attack on the livelihood of the drivers and the people.”

In the last four weekly oil price hikes alone, PISTON said jeepney drivers lost an average of P90.00 per day or a total of P2,250.00 a month.

The group pointed out that this development came after Marcos Jr. said in his State of the Nation Address less than three weeks back that Filipinos are benefitting from so-called reduction in prices of commodities.

Meanwhile, Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (BAYAN) clarified that the latest spate of price hikes could not be blamed on oil exporting countries alone.

Bayan secretary general Raymond Palatino said Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut down oil production by one million barrels a day has yet to take effect by September.

“There’s no actual cut yet, no reduction in production yet. [There is] only news that they will reduce production and yet the prices already increased,” Palatino complained.

“The one that really benefits from the oil price hikes is the government because of its excise tax and VAT (value-added tax) on oil products. It is fine if the government really uses it for the people. But based on their budget (2024) proposal, where will it go? To confidential funds, foreign trips, Maharlika!” Palatino added.

KADAMAY members in Quezon City hold a protest action against the recent spate of oil price hikes. (Kadamay Facebook Page photo)

The Department of Transportation (DoTr) earlier said the government is set to release P2.95 billion worth of fuel subsidies for PUV operators and drivers “to cushion the impact of the increase in fuel prices”.

The financial assistance package will also cover tricycle drivers and delivery riders, the agency said last Sunday.

“We will make sure that the assistance to our PUV drivers will be distributed immediately so they can use it, pay for their fuel and improve their daily income,” transportation secretary Jaime Bautista said.

PUV drivers will receive a one-time cash grant from the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board while the Department of Interior and Local Government and the Department of Information and Communications Technology will hand out the financial assistance to tricycle drivers and delivery services riders, respectively.

The financial aid will be given through the beneficiaries’ cash cards, the government announced.

Yesterday, Monday, members of the urban poor group Kalipunan ng Damayang Mahihirap (KADAMAY) held a protest event at the corner of Quezon Avenue and Agham Road in Quezon City against the latest series of oil price hikes.

KADAMAY said they also demand the abolition of the excise tax on oil prices and the junking of the oil deregulation law.

The group said that in addition to the fact that most PUV drivers are residents of urban poor communities, the series of oil price hikes also drive the prices of basic commodities to go higher and cause further hardships to the people. #

Gadon as presidential anti-poverty adviser ‘extremely poor choice, clownish’ – lawmaker

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The Ferdinand Marcos Jr. government has appointed a controversial lawyer as its new Presidential Adviser on Poverty Alleviation, a move questioned by a progressive lawmaker as “clownish”.

Following the announcement of Atty. Larry Gadon’s appointment to the post on Tuesday, June 27, Gabriela Women’s Party Representative Arlene Brosas said the choice “reflects the administration’s clownish approach in addressing hunger and poverty in the country.”

“Gadon is an extremely poor choice for a public position that requires serious and diligent work, especially as more than half of Filipinos rate themselves as poor,” Brosas added.

(UPDATE: The Supreme Court announced Wednesday morning, June 28, it voted 15-0 in favor of Gadon’s disbarment for acts inimical to the legal profession.)

Brosas said creating a new position at the executive branch and filling it up with the most unqualified person is certainly not a step towards solving the widespread poverty in the country.

The Makabayan bloc lawmaker added that truly solving poverty requires comprehensively addressing the widespread landlessness and joblessness in the country through genuine land reform and establishment of national industries, development plans that Gadon is not known to espouse.

Brosas also pointed out that the new presidential adviser is an unsavory character, unworthy to advise the highest official of the country.

“A lawyer who once maligned and verbally assaulted a female journalist with misogynist remarks, and who has been suspended twice by the Supreme Court for his foul language has no right to be on the presidential payroll,” Brosas said.

“He is also a certified red-tagger, branding those who supported calls for his disbarment as ‘NPA coddler,’” she added.

Unapologetic

A rabid Marcos follower and supporter, Gadon first became notorious for flashing a dirty finger at and cursing protesters supporting then embattled Supreme Court (SC) Chief Justice Ma. Lourdes Sereno in a rally in Baguio City in 2018.

The SC suspended Gadon in January 2022 for spewing obscenities and sexist remarks at journalist and Marcos critic Raissa Robles of the South China Morning Post.

He is also infamous for publicly branding those who disagreed with as “bobo” (idiots).

In his first media interviews after announcement of his appointment, Gadon remained unapologetic, adding they deserved his tirades.

“I’m not going to say sorry because, in the first place, they were at fault because they spread lies. They should be grateful I didn’t have them killed. It’s good that I just cursed them,” Gadon told radio station DZBB.

He added that his critics, including the group Akbayan, do not have 5% of his intelligence.

‘Batang Busog Malusog’

According to the Presidential Communications Office (PCO) announcement of Gadon’s appointment, the presidential adviser would work with government agencies and non-government organizations to create programs “addressing the root of poverty.”

In his first televised briefing, Gadon said his first program would the Marcos Jr. government’s anti-hunger program dubbed “BBM” or “Batang Busog Malusog.”

BBM is the acronym of the President’s nickname Bong-Bong Marcos.

Gadon said the BBM program aims to address malnutrition among public elementary school students, noting that the condition contribute to the Filipino pupils’ poor academic performance.

The lawyer added he will also focus on strengthening micro-industries to provide jobs for the poor.

“My idea is to have micro-industries, similar to the pattern in China and Taiwan where they have a number of micro-industries scattered in their communities that employ 50 to 100 personnel,” he said. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)

Consumers demand cash aid, wage hike as more oil price increases loom

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A network of consumers’ rights advocates demanded that government continue with the roll out of its promised aid to families severely affected by recent spikes in prices of goods and services.

The Samahan at Ugnayan ng mga Konsyumer para sa Ikauunlad ng Bayan (SUKI Network) said their demand for cash assistance for affected families, transport workers, small businesses and producers are unchanged despite the rollback in oil prices this week.

The group also pressed the government to implement salary increases and reduce prices by scrapping oil excise taxes to help poor families recover from pandemic consumer woes.

SUKI Network is composed of organizations of poor sectors such as drivers, the urban poor, workers, farmers, small entrepreneurs, academics, church people, advocates of the right to food and basic needs, social services, public utilities, among others.

Kalipunan ng Damayang Mahihirap (Kadamay) officer Eufemia Doringo said such demands are just as they see further increases in prices of goods and services as another round of oil prices loom nest week.

“Transport workers with the Pinagkaisang Lakas ng Tsuper at Opereytor Nationwide (PISTON) say they are far from recovered with the Php11.45/liter rollback. They have lost income from 11 consecutive weeks of oil price increases this year exceeding Php30.00,” Doringo said.

Doringo reported that in the urban poor community of Sitio San Roque, Barangay North Triangle, Quezon City, rice is being sold at Php35-36/kilo, pork bones at Php250-300/kilo, dried fish at Php10-20/piece, cabbage at Php50-80/piece and sugar at (Php53-Php70/kilo.

Consumer rights advocate Bantay Konsyumer, Kalsada at Kuryente (BKKK) also criticized increased electricity rates it said would impact so-called lifeline consumers.

BKKK convenor Prof. Louie Montemar said the government should consider using the Malampaya funds to subsidize electricity rates and offset the new Php0.0625 per kilowatt hour (kWh) increase, bringing rates to Php9.6467 per kWh.

Government shows lack of control

Ariel Casilao of Anakpawis meanwhile said that the rollback indicates price manipulation on the part of oil cartels.

“They easily announced a rollback after raking super-profits from the total several weeks’ hike of up to Php30.75 per liter in the price of diesel, up to20.50 for gasoline and PHp24.90 for kerosene,” Casilao explained.

The former legislator said the rise and fall in oil prices also shows government’s lack of control of the oil industry under the Oil Deregulation Law.

“As long as deregulation is in place, the nation and the public are at the mercy of giant oil companies’ opaque pricing schemes. The unbundling of the price of petroleum products in the recommended amendments to the deregulation law would be welcome,” Casilao said.

The SUKI network said it demands the unbundling of petroleum product prices, scrapping of the oil excise tax and Oil Deregulation Law, Php10,000 cash assistance for the 18 million poorest households, Php15,000 subsidy to producers, substantial support for small local businesses, and a Php750 national minimum wage.

Collect Marcoses’ unpaid taxes

The network said Duterte’s recent order to increase its monthly financial aid to the poorest Filipino families affected by oil price increases from Php200 to Php500 still only amounts to just Php16.67 per day.

It also cited figures from economic think tank IBON Foundation that the real value of the minimum wage has fallen from Php536.74 in 2016 to Php494.02 in February 2022.

According to IBON, the living wage is now at Php1,072 per day or Php25,252 per month for a family of five in the National Capital Region.”

“The argument that there aren’t funds for the people’s demands is worn and torn,” SUKI Network spokesperson Prof. Reginald Vallejos said.

“IBON has shown that if the Duterte government really wants to help its constituency, it can reallocate the trillions it budgeted for big-ticket infrastructure, debt servicing, and military and police modernization; recover tax cuts given to big corporations; and tax the bilionaires,” Vallejos said.

Kadamay’s Doringo added that the government must also decisively collect Php203 billion estate tax arrears of the heirs of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos as additional source of funds for its cash aid roll out.

“Instead of letting them go scott-free while tens of thousands of small businesses are forced to close due to lack of government support, the Marcoses should be obliged by government to face the law and pay up”, Doringo said. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)

Yearstarter: Seeking better normal in 2022

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by IBON Foundation

What’s in store for the economy in 2022? Omicron is on everyone’s mind now and coughs, colds, sore throats and fevers are everywhere among the vaccinated and unvaccinated. That feeling of tiredness may not necessarily be due to COVID-19 though.

It could be the Duterte administration’s underwhelming response for two years now that’s getting tiresome. The government can do so much more than its emerging twin-pronged strategy of downplaying the pandemic – including hiding its true impact from the public – and putting the burden of adjusting to it on the people.

Reopened

The biggest thing the economy had going for it coming into 2022 was reopening after the protracted and periodic lockdowns since the coronavirus first hit the country. Key indicators such as Google mobility data clearly show increased activity especially since September 2021 and through the holiday season, also corresponding to lower COVID-19 response stringency index measures since the middle of the year.

Despite this reopening, it is however conspicuous that the economic rebound has still been very shallow. It looks like gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 will still just make up for barely half of the -9.6% growth (contraction) due to the lockdowns in 2020. (See Chart 1)

This is most of all due to the economic managers putting more emphasis on so-called fiscal consolidation than the fiscal stimulus so needed by the lockdown-ravaged economy. National government budget increases in 2020 (11.3% increase) and 2021 (9.9%) were actually even below the 14.3% average increase in the period 2016-2019. The 11.5% increase in the recently approved 2022 budget is also still below par.

So while there’s some momentum from reopening, the economy is still weighed down in 2022 by the effect of government conservatism and stinginess. It still isn’t doing enough to fix the damage its lockdowns caused on aggregate demand and supply.

Dampened

Household consumption accounts for some 70% of the economy. The loss of incomes and livelihoods is however huge and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reports that around seven out of ten (69.8%) households didn’t have any savings as of the fourth quarter of last year. This is consistent with a Social Weather Stations (SWS) self-rated poverty survey in September that had 79% of families reporting themselves as poor (45%) or borderline poor (34%).

Implicitly low incomes are eroded further by how inflation has been mostly accelerating since the end of 2019 or even before the pandemic. (See Chart 2) These are huge dampeners on aggregate demand aside from indicating considerable distress to poor families and household welfare.

On the supply side, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported 138,843 establishments employing 565,446 people permanently closing in 2020 and 2021. (See Table 1) This however does not count likely tens of thousands more informal unregistered establishments that closed but were not captured by official statistics.

December labor force figures still aren’t out but these will likely only confirm that 2022 is starting with high unemployment and greatly worsened quality of work. These repress consumption spending and, by extension, enterprise growth. They are difficult conditions for smaller establishments to reopen, expand or even just stay in business. Telecommunications, energy, water, banking and finance, and real estate and construction where tycoons concentrate are the only ones recovering quickly and looking to thrive.

Unemployment is officially reported at 3.2 million as of November 2021. But it may be as much as 8.3 million if unpaid family workers (3.7 million) and uncounted jobless merely because of a stricter definition of unemployment since 2005 (some 1.5 million) are also counted. Unemployment and unpaid work have remained stubbornly high despite the economy reopening. (See Chart 3)

Reported increases in employment unfortunately do not really reflect stable or decent-paying work. The 2.9 million net employment created by November 2021 compared to pre-pandemic January 2020 is wholly informal in irregular self-employment (1.5 million) and unpaid family work (1 million).  It should moreover be noted that there are 389,000 less full-time workers and 457,000 less wage and salary workers in private establishments.

Slowing world

The government target of 7-9% growth in 2022 is questionable – the economic managers have never met their declared original growth targets since 2017, and just revise targets as actual adverse performance becomes evident. (See Chart 4) The so-called growth momentum is mainly imagined.

The effects of reopening are overemphasized and the impact of economic scarring underestimated. It also remains hazy if the pandemic really is on the way out in the country or abroad. The impact of new variants like Omicron and others that are different in terms of transmissibility, severity and resistance to vaccines remains to be seen.

And it’s not as if all is well in the world economy. It may seem a long time ago but when the pandemic hit in 2020, global capitalism was into 11 years of striving, and failing, to overcome protracted stagnation since the 2008 global financial and economic crisis. As in the Philippines, rebounding back to this only seems desirable because of how bad things were when the world locked down.

Today, there is still that protracted stagnation to deal with but also a number of additional stressors. Foremost is vastly higher global debt which hit a record US$296 trillion, equivalent to 353% of global GDP, by the middle of 2021. Monetary policy will likely tighten soon to rein in high inflation. Rising interest rates will cause tremors in the debt pile including in the Philippines.

But global unemployment is also higher and supply chains are possibly in flux. Global growth will almost certainly decelerate in 2022 and beyond especially as fiscal stimulus in other countries fade – real stimulus, unlike the press release version in the Philippines. The United States (US) and China are the acknowledged biggest drivers of the global economy; they are each already hitting their respective rough spots aside from still bickering with each other.

Slowing PH

Domestically, the base effect driving the country’s GDP growth last year will start tapering off in the first quarter of 2022. With the rebound from reopening over and weighed down by lockdown-induced economic scarring, the economy is unlikely to return anytime soon to even just its pre-pandemic growth rates.

The pre-pandemic trajectory is perhaps also not even something to want to return to. Economic growth was slowing for three consecutive years even before the pandemic from 7.1% in 2016 to 6.9% (2017), 6.3% (2018), and 6.1% (2019). (See Chart 1) Despite much administration hype, the economy was not really developing any long-term growth drivers.

Lacking fresh ideas, the government is also putting too much faith in its stale Build, Build, Build infrastructure program to revive the economy. As the Duterte administration’s economic managers do not tire of telling, the public infrastructure budget has been continuously rising under its watch. It almost doubled (78% increase) from Php590 billion in 2016 to Php1.1 trillion in 2019, with the equivalent share in GDP increasing from 3.9% to 5.4% over that time.

Yet over 2017-2019, economic growth still kept slowing and annual average job creation of 313,338 was the slowest in 35 years or among all post-Marcos administrations. The gains were disproportionately low even in construction subsector employment. Between 2016 and 2019, this only saw a 23% increase to 4.2 million mainly low-paying and short-term jobs.

Election spending this year may also not give the accustomed boost many may be hoping for. The more unresolved the pandemic and the less physical campaign-related activities, then the weaker the additional impulse.

As it is, the best-case scenario with the government’s business-as-usual approach is that the country ends 2022 at around its pre-pandemic 2019 level of economic output. This means that three years of economic growth will still have been lost, not to mention the immeasurable suffering and hunger over that time of tens of millions of poor and low-income families.

There will be growth in 2022 – this is inevitable with the reopened economy – but it will not be broad-based. Nor will it fix worsening job scarcity.

Recovering

Which is not to say that all this has to be a foregone conclusion. If it chose to, the administration that is exiting and the new one entering can take a more rational and humane approach to recovering and reforming the economy.

This starts with breaking the inertia of tepid public health measures to contain the pandemic. Mass testing, diligent contact tracing, and smart quarantines that do not burden the working class remain the ideal measures to avert explosive case numbers and the uncertainty and distress in their wake. The Omicron variant has shown how over-relying on vaccinations is insufficient when new variants can still arise because global vaccination is still so uneven and lacking especially in the global South.

Giving meaningful cash assistance to the poorest 18 million families will not just improve their welfare but also spur consumption spending and aggregate demand. The hundreds of billions put in their pockets to spend will also be a much more effective fiscal stimulus than the same amount going to capital-intensive or import-dependent or corruption-wracked infrastructure projects.

This does not have to be inflationary. Likewise giving meaningful support to domestic agriculture and local enterprises can ensure a supply response. This support can also be given with a long view to expanding rural productivity and spurring Filipino industrialization. These are still the essential foundations of the national economy, job creation, and dynamic modernization.

The fiscal constraint need not be binding. Large government deficits and, to some degree, even rising debt can be justified if these result in increased economic activity. The problem is not large deficits and debt per se – rather, it’s why we cannot more quickly grow out of these deficits and debt in a way that lifts the conditions of the majority instead of just a few.

Radicals

The economic managers also favor credit ratings, competitiveness, openness to foreign investments, international reserves, and other such indicators. This however confuses what are merely possible means to development as ends in themselves. In the worst instances – such as with regressive tax “reforms” – outright anti-development measures are portrayed as steps forward.

The result is paying scant attention to real economic foundations, decent work, and eradicating poverty for the majority – while over-emphasizing profitability for conglomerates and the wealthy families owning them.

The pandemic has been a radical shock to the country. Entering the new year and, soon, a new administration, it is also timely to ask for more radical measures breaking from the economic conservatism which has weighed down the economy and development for the people for so long. #

Suspending TRAIN oil taxes will lower oil prices and ease inflation—IBON

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Supporting calls to suspend oil excise taxes, research group IBON said that this will go far in immediately easing the burden of rising prices on ordinary Filipinos. The group added that revenue losses can be compensated by similarly suspending recent corporate tax cuts.

IBON said that these measures can be the start not just of a more progressive tax system but also a prelude to better regulation and control over the country’s oil industry.

Amid tight supplies and later increasing demand, global oil prices have been generally rising since the pandemic started including for eight straight weeks now.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut production, the US is not releasing oil from its Strategic Reserve, and China instructed its energy companies to secure supplies for the coming winter.

From August 23 to October 15, the price per barrel of Dubai crude increased by US$15.95, Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) gasoline by US$19.05, and MOPS diesel by US$22.65.

Gasoline prices in this Pasig City fuel station has gone past P70/liter after last week’s oil price hike. (Photo by Pom Villanueva/Kodao)

The country is heavily reliant on oil imports so the global oil price hikes are causing domestic oil prices to follow suit. In just the past eight weeks, the price per liter of diesel hiked by Php8.70, gasoline by Php7.25, and kerosene by Php8.10.

This disproportionately burdens poor oil consumers and Filipino households, IBON said.

Just from the eight weeks of hikes, for instance, jeepney drivers have to pay Php95.70 more for 11 liters of diesel per day. Farmers have to pay Php1,653 more for 190 liters of diesel per hectare per cropping season.

Rising oil prices increases the prices of basic goods and services, IBON stressed, and fuels inflation. This is worst for the poorest 30% of the population for whom inflation is higher than the national average.

Inflation across many commodity groups is already much higher now than last year. Food inflation increased from 1.8% in the whole of 2020 to 5.4% in September 2021. Over that same period, inflation in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased from 2% to 3.4%, and in clothing and footwear from 2.5% to 2.7 percent. Inflation in health, transport and education have fortunately moderated.

IBON said that suspending the oil excise taxes under Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) will provide immediate relief. This will lower the price per liter of diesel by Php6.72 and of gasoline by Php6.33.

It will also remove Php3 from the price per kilo of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lowering the price of an 11-kilo tank by Php33 not including VAT.

The price per liter of diesel can go down from some Php46.33 to Php39.61, gasoline from some Php55.51 to Php49.18, and LPG from some Php968.90 to Php935.90.

IBON also said that oil revenue losses can be offset by also suspending corporate income tax (CIT) cuts under the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act or CREATE.

The group noted that the government projects revenue losses of Php115.8 billion in 2021 and Php101.8 billion in 2022 from CREATE’s CIT cuts.

Reducing indirect consumption taxes such as on oil and increasing direct taxes on income makes the tax system more progressive, said IBON.

The group stressed that these immediate measures are doable and will help lower domestic oil prices and ease inflationary pressures, substantially mitigating the burden of global oil price hikes on the poorest.

Longer-term solutions should also start to be seriously considered, said IBON.

IBON stressed that more effective regulation and control of the oil industry is the only way to sustainably lower oil prices.

This can start by ensuring transparency in oil firms’ price-setting and active state intervention to prevent overpricing.

IBON pointed out that oil firms have had too much freedom to raise domestic oil prices opaquely and at will since the Oil Deregulation Law or Republic Act 8479, often changing pump prices by more than warranted by global oil price increases.

IBON also said that renationalization of oil firms such as Petron will increase the government’s capacity to intervene in the industry, with the strategic view of eventually nationalizing the majority of the oil industry. #

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Kodao publishes IBON articles as part of a content sharing agreement.

Farmers demand food production aid under 2022 nat’l budget

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Hit hard by government’s greater dependence on food importation during the coronavirus pandemic, farmers have demanded P15,000 production subsidy in next year’s national budget.

Reacting to Department of Agriculture (DA) statements at its ongoing budget deliberations at the House of Representatives, the Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) also said it opposes secretary William Dar’s admission there will be no cash aid for farmers under their Php91 billion 2022 budget proposal.

“Gutom po ang mga Pilipino lalo na ngayong pandemya. Kailangan palakasin ang lokal na produksyon ng pagkain. Paano magagawa ito kung walang ayuda sa mga magsasaka at hindi nagagamit ng tama ang pondo sa agrikultura ayon sa pangangailan ng mga magbubukid? KMP chairperson Danilo Ramos in a statement said. 

(There are more hungry Filipinos during this pandemic. Local food production must be strengthened. How can this be achieved without cash aid to farmers and funds are not used properly to benefit farmers?)

Ramos said that they support a higher budget for DA, their group is not keen on the department’s fiscal directions as well as greater emphasis on import liberalization and private and foreign investments on agriculture.

Ramos said such policies have only primarily benefited local and foreign business interests and have further marginalized poor farmers.

“The perfect storm in agriculture is not only due to the african swine flu (ASF), climatic events, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Decades of neo-liberal policies have only worsened the state of agriculture and Filipino farmers,” Ramos said.  

The KMP revealed that DA’s “Matibay na Seguridad sa Pagkain, Maunlad at Masaganang Buhay ng mga Magsasaka at Mangingisda” program is in fact decreasing the budget for corn production, organic agriculture as well as the production of high-value crops.

“The P207M o 1.33% increase in the National Rice Program budget is also very meager to support rice production,” it added.

KMP said DA’s market and business-driven and profit-oriented programs remains its focus while failing to address the slump in pork production due to the ASF.

“The DA is already discussing technology and modernization under Digital Agriculture 4.0, while the dominant domestic farming perennially relies on carabao and manual plow. There is a significant disconnect between DA’s policies and the realities of poor Filipino farmers,” Ramos revealed.

The KMP said Dar must realize the actual condition of farmers and get out of his “alternate reality.” # (Raymund B. Villanueva)

Reds urge people to brace for worse COVID crisis; rallies forces to lead fight vs. ‘tyrant Duterte’

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The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) urged the people to brace for an even worse crisis because of the government’s ineffectual response to the coronavirus (COVID) pandemic.

In a statement, the CPP said that due to President Rodrigo Duterte’s “unbridled neglect and failure of governance,” there appears to be an imminent break out of an even worse crisis in the coming months.”

The underground Party said there is a possibility that the COVID pandemic would lead to the downfall of the economy and people’s lives due to Duterte’s reliance on lockdowns and other onerous and burdensome policies.

If it happens, the Duterte regime would falter with the wearing down of the people’s patience, the group said.

Last August 6, the day the government imposed its strictest quarantine for the third time since the pandemic began last year, the Philippines has overtaken Indonesia with the most number of active COVID cases at close to 120,000 cases as compared to its neighbor’s more than 118,000 cases.

Since Saturday, August 14, the country registered upwards of 14,000 new cases daily, nearly matching the all-time high of more than 15,000 registered last April.

“[T]he continuing worsening of the pandemic is a result of Duterte’s pigheaded refusal to prioritize health measures,” the CPP said, noting that the government has no new solution to the emergent Delta variant of the virus but repeated lockdowns.

The group warned there is a strong possibility that COVID will spread more rapidly beyond the capacity of hospitals and facilities in the coming months due to the government’s lack of testing and contact-tracing capacity, in addition to its “turtle-paced vaccination” activities.

No recovery in the horizon

The CPP also said government’s assurances of an economic recovery appear empty due to the lack of investments to kick-start production and consumption.

“Based on experiences in 2020, there is the threat of unemployment shooting up within a few months and rapid rise of businesses losses and bankruptcies,” it said.

The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) announced last August 6 that 5,322 workers have lost their jobs on the first day of the current lockdown as at least 178 establishments said they were closing down or cutting their workforce.

Last March 30, DOLE said 4.2 million remained unemployed while 7.9 million workers took pay cuts from shorter working hours.

The CPP said the situation will cause the intensification of workers exploitation and further deterioration of the lives of millions in both cities and the countryside.

“People are forced to desperate straits by the rotten, failed and oppressive Duterte government. Millions of Filipinos daily suffer in long queues for food, aid and vaccines,” the group said.

All the while, government officials abuse power, politicize aid and vaccine distribution, pocket public funds, squander on counterproductive wars, or repay the ever rising government debt which did not benefit the people, the group alleged.

Human rights activists accuse Duterte of instigating mass killings of civilians. (Kodao file photo)

Resistance vs. tyranny

The CPP urged the people to act and express outrage against the Duterte government’s failed policies and response to the crisis.

 “They cannot remain silent and dispersed. They cannot forever wait for aid or rely on the good-heartedness of others to avoid extreme hunger,” it said.

“The people must resist being silenced by Duterte’s shock and terror. Their silence will all the more embolden Duterte and his vassals and minions to trample on the their rights and welfare, plunder public funds, impose heavier taxes, betray and conspire with foreign powers, monopolize political power, sow terror and perpetuate themselves in Malacañang,” it added.

It also challenged its forces as well as progressive, patriotic and democratic activists to bear “the responsibility of guiding and leading the Filipino people in their fight against Duterte’s ruling tyranny.”

“The Filipino masses have been deprived of everything. They have nothing else to lose,” the CPP said. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)

What Build Build Build has delivered

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by Rosario Guzman

The Duterte presidency is nearing the end of its term, yet we don’t seem to be anywhere near the fulfilment of the big infrastructure dream of the administration. Build Build Build is supposed to be the centerpiece of what could be a Duterte legacy, but the program’s performance is far from defining a grand exit for the administration.

The number has changed

Only 11 of the more than 100 infrastructure flagship projects or IFPs have been completed as of May 2021. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) lists another 12 IFPs that may be done by the end of 2021 and another 17 by the end of 2022. If these were even feasible, there would be a total of 40 finished projects under Pres. Duterte’s watch.   

The government started with a list of 75 IFPs in 2017. In 2020, NEDA revised the list twice – increasing this to 104 and then to 112 (no longer including the 7 of the 11 finished projects). It retained only 42 of the original 75 and added new ones that are more doable, or that are not even defined as public works such as the national ID system, or projects that are merely continued from previous administrations. The list was obviously revised to increase the chances of completing a respectable number of projects.

Of the 11 projects completed so far, six were not included in the original 2017 IFP list. Two of these six – the LRT 2 East Extension and the Metro Manila Skyway Stage 3, were even started under the previous administration. Of the 12 IFPs expected to be finished by the end of this year, 11 are new additions to the list including two previously identified projects that had also been started long before Pres. Duterte’s term – the Unified Grand Central Station (a previous commitment by the Arroyo administration but was stalled due to disputes) and the Malitubog-Maridagao Irrigation Project (started in 2011). Of the 17 IFPs for completion by end of 2022, only the Chico River Pump Irrigation Project was in the 2017 list, while the rest were only added last year.

Even if we do see the completion of these 29 IFPs by the end of 2021 and 2022, all the finished projects will still just amount to Php365.24 billion which is only 7.8% of the total project cost of Php4.7 trillion for all targeted IFPs. Much remains to be done actually, with 51 projects going beyond 2023 while 28 others are still in the pipeline.

Driven by debt and private capital

Nevertheless, the Duterte administration has already crowed about its unmatched performance in infrastructure, citing as an indication of its seriousness the almost 100% increase in government spending for this, from Php590.5 billion in 2016 to Php1,019 billion in 2021. It has increased infra spending as percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) from 3.9% in 2016 to 5.1% in 2021. The annual average of 5% infra spending as percent of GDP in 2017-2021 even surpasses the annual average of 3.4% under the Marcos dictatorship. This is even despite the 21.4% decline in disbursements last year due to the pandemic.

In the Sulong Pilipinas forum of the administration in April this year, the economic managers took turns highlighting how the administration has boldly financed infrastructure for economic development in contrast to the Aquino administration’s lackluster performance.

However, more than half (56%) of the indicative amount for the IFPs is from official development assistance (ODA), mostly as loans, while only 3.9% comes purely from the General Appropriations Act (GAA) or the national budget. Conspicuously, there are now 20 unsolicited public-private partnerships (PPPs) where there was none before, comprising 32% of total cost.

There are seven other PPPs worth Php244.2 billion or another 5.2% of the total cost. Five of these PPPs, all expressways, are components of the Supplemental Toll Operation Agreement (STOA) entered into by the government’s Toll Regulatory Board (TRB), Ramon Ang’s Citra Central Expressway Corp., and the Philippine National Construction Corporation (PNCC). STOA ensures the identification, adjustments and collection of toll rates upon the completion of the projects.

The government has also mixed PPP with ODA in the case of LRT-1 Cavite Extension Project to be accomplished beyond 2023, and with GAA in the case of Metro Cebu Expressway Project which is still in the pipeline. There is also ODA mixed with GAA in the case of Davao City Coastal Road Project to be done after 2023.

PPP was the preferred funding scheme of the Aquino presidency, which was criticized not only for its slowness but more importantly for benefiting the real estate and infrastructure tycoons. The then incoming Duterte presidency declared that the state would proactively make an investment, raising hopes that infrastructure would finally be cheaper and more relevant to public needs. But in reality, the government simply shifted to ODA loans especially from Japan and China; in particular, the share of China ODA to total ODA to the Philippines increased from a negligible 0.01% in 2016 to 2.73% as of 2019. The Duterte presidency also ended up still relying on private capital, unsolicited proposals at that, to expedite projects. Overall, it appears that the promised change of having a genuinely state-led infrastructure development and presumably for maximum public benefit has not come at all.

Instead, the administration doubled its gross borrowings from Php507 billion in 2016 to Php902 billion the following year, breaching the unprecedented Php1 trillion mark in 2019 and nearly tripling this in 2020. The national government outstanding debt as of May 2021 is Php11.1 trillion – it was only Php6 trillion when Pres. Duterte took over.

Building up foreign investors and oligarchs

Unsolicited proposals for PPPs from the private sector are allowed under the 1990 Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Law (Republic Act 6957 as amended by Republic Act 7718), the country’s watershed legislation towards privatized infrastructure development. These projects do not require direct government guarantee, subsidy or equity, and presumably involves a new concept or technology. The BOT Law also defines and allows the Swiss Challenge as the procurement system to be followed for unsolicited proposals, where upon the project proposal of a private entity, the government invites similar or competitive proposals from third parties which the original proponent can still match afterwards.

Pres. Duterte adopted the Swiss Challenge and eliminated the normal bidding process for public works, wherein the government presents the specifications of the procurement and invites entities to make offers, which could be in an open or closed bidding. Controversially, Malacañang argued that this would quicken the pace of Build Build Build and minimize corruption. On the contrary, the Swiss Challenge can potentially concentrate infrastructure control to only a few proponents as well as government officials. It can definitely lower transparency, such that the novelty of the concept or technology does not get to be subjected to public scrutiny. In other words, the government has skipped the development planning process and relied on what the private sector wants to embark on, thereby making infrastructure inherently exclusive rather than inclusive.

All of the unsolicited PPPs are for transport and mobility. In fact, 76 of the 112 IFPs, or 91% of the total project cost, are for transport and mobility. Likewise with 71% of the total project cost of the 40 projects that the administration hopes to announce as done by 2022. Build Build Build prioritizes transport and mobility as though the country’s transport and traffic problems take precedence over the crisis and stagnation of agriculture and manufacturing.

In reality, the ‘infrastructure ambition’ is about three things for the Duterte administration. It is about providing the infrastructure foreign investors want – to improve connectivity to the economic zones and ease the cost of doing business. The country’s creditors, notably the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), have been nagging the Philippine government to make pleasant infrastructure to increase the country’s creditworthiness and investment grade and to attract much-needed foreign investment in the import-export economy. That is visibly the first and basic reason for making Build Build Build look grand and why past administrations had merely focused on providing infrastructure as their primary task in a liberalized and privatized economy.

Secondly, Build Build Build is about providing foreign and local investors and builders the business they want. The Duterte administration wanted to take advantage of the global infrastructure investment glut that was largely untapped in 2016 by flashing a grand infrastructure menu card. In short, it has promoted infrastructure as the foreign investment destination, along with energy, water and public utilities which also have vast infra needs. This has immensely enriched foreign infra, utilities, construction and transport technology corporations despite the rise in global interest rates and prolonged global economic slide. And now, despite the pandemic and declining global investments, the Duterte administration continues to sell the dream.

Thirdly, Build Build Build is about boosting the wealth of the country’s economic oligarchs, especially those in real estate construction, ports building, transportation, energy and water, and the consequent speculation on values of land and natural assets. International and national media have observed how Pres. Duterte has empowered a new business elite, the “Dutertegarchs”, and created his own set of cronies who have benefited from full-scale liberalization of foreign investments and private capital in otherwise public goods and domain.

Legacy of deeper crisis

Much of the hyped benefits from embarking on a massive infrastructure program have failed to materialize. Build Build Build has been the Duterte administration’s only hope to arrest the economic slowdown pre-pandemic, and now to recover the economic collapse during the pandemic and beyond.

But it has been the wrong choice of policy from the start. The economy needs mending in its production sectors, especially those catering to domestic needs and that have the capability to create meaningful jobs for the mass of jobless and sustainable incomes for the poor majority. But the government has chosen to spend on boosting investor confidence and opportunities. Even spending on health pales in comparison with the Php1.1 trillion allocation for infrastructure in the 2021 budget.

Consequently, this wrong policy mindset only boosts the production of infra materials by the corporations of the contracting countries. In the case of ODA for instance, loans are always preconditioned by the host country’s use of the so-called donor country’s contractors, technology as well as businessmen. At one point, China even pushed for the use of its own workers in Philippine projects. Consequently, this has increased the country’s imports bill, resulting in the country’s worst trade deficit. But the more important consequence is that Build Build Build’s reliance on foreign contractors and materials has undermined our chance of locally producing these materials and building our own infrastructure using local resources. Even the absorptive capacity, the ability to “learn and use” external knowledge, of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Department of Transportation (DOTr), is limited.

Build Build Build has also failed to deliver the jobs generation that the administration has imagined as one of the benefits. Every year since 2017, the growth in construction employment has been a lot smaller than in 2016. The projected job generation from Build Build Build of 1.2 million annual average in 2017-2022 is a far cry from reality. The annual average job generation from all sectors pre-pandemic or 2017-2019 only reached 313,000,[1] the lowest among all administrations post-Martial Law. We lost 2.6 million jobs last year.

Optimists have looked forward to the public services that may be improved with the finished projects, even if these are not exactly the kinds of infrastructure that are much needed to recover lost jobs and incomes. But that is also one of the follies of debt-driven and privatized infrastructure development – we get to pay for these increasingly irrelevant projects with our taxes and high user-fees. Build Build Build has been backed by the most regressive tax reform the country ever had and the built-in automatic upward adjustments in toll fees, fares and other user-fees.

In all probability, in the future post-pandemic as the economy yields lower returns on investment, the debt owed today will be more expensive than initially computed. This will mean heavier debt burden, more anti-poor and regressive taxes, and higher user-fees for so-called public services. In all certainty by then, we can say that the grand infrastructure age has delivered a legacy of untold poverty and deeper economic crisis. #

[1] Average of 2017-2019 only because of change to 2013 Master Sample Design in 2016

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Kodao publishes IBON articles as part of a content-sharing agreement.

Jobs crisis continues, informal work worsens

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by IBON Foundation

Despite economic managers’ claims, the country’s jobs situation is bleak and far from returning to pre-pandemic levels, said research group IBON. Millions of Filipinos are still struggling to find work or turning more and more to informal jobs and self-employment to survive. The group said that substantial ayuda is urgently needed and that Congress should hold a special session to ensure the immediate allocation and distribution of funds for emergency aid.

IBON said the latest labor force figures show that the 3.7 million unemployed in May 2021 remains higher by 1.3 million than in January 2020 before the pandemic. The 2.2 million increase in employment is not enough to accommodate the additional 3.5 million Filipinos in the labor force, still leaving over a million unemployed. The number of underemployed has only decreased by just 807,000.

The employment increase also hides a significant decline in the quality of work and incomes as the country remains battered by the ongoing health and economic crisis, said the group. Millions of Filipinos are increasingly resorting to informal self-employment to make a living any way they can.

IBON noted that, by class of worker, the number of wage and salary workers declined by 131,000 from January 2020 to May 2021. This is mainly due to the 711,000 drop in those that worked for private establishments, likely from closures and retrenchments in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

The number of Filipinos entering informal self-employment and unpaid work is also worsening, the group said. Self-employed work without any paid employees climbed to 12.7 million (1.6 million increase) from 11.1 million in January 2020. Unpaid family workers also rose to 3.6 million (932,000 increase). Employers in own family-operated farms and businesses however dropped to 761,000 (241,000 decrease) from about one million – an indication that small businesses and farms have been unable to cope and are shutting down amid the pandemic crisis.

IBON stressed that the number of employed by hours worked also reveals how bad the informal employment situation has gotten. Those that worked part-time went up by 3.2 million to 16.7 million, while those that worked full-time fell by 1.3 million. Those considered as “with a job, not at work” increased by 273,000 to 606,000.  The increase in part-time workers and those with a job but not at work can also be attributed to the rising number of self-employed and businesses implementing reduced workdays and hours.

More and more Filipino workers are entering sectors that are known to be low-paying and irregular, the group noted. Employment in wholesale and retail trade increased by 1.6 million to 10.2 million and in agriculture by one million to 10.6 million. Economic growth in these two sectors however continued to contract in the first quarter of 2021 – agriculture contracted by 1.2% and trade by 3.9%. This strongly implies lower sectoral incomes made worse by overcrowding.

The rise in part-time employment in these sectors also reflects the irregularity of work, said IBON. The number of part-timers grew by 1.1 million to 3.2 million in trade and by 889,000 to 7.2 million in agriculture. 

IBON said that with an increasing number of Filipinos struggling to support themselves amid poor job prospects and falling incomes, substantial aid, subsidies and support are urgently needed. It is time for the government to take immediate steps in providing these and prioritizing the welfare and interests of millions of vulnerable Filipinos. The group said it can start by heeding people’s demand for a special session to ensure the speedy passage of legislation that will ensure the immediate release of funds and distribution of ayuda.