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Philippine health recovery not a priority for Duterte administration

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by Maricar R. Piedad

Deliberations on the proposed Php4.5-trillion General Appropriations Act (GAA) for 2021 have begun. This budget will be crucial for the Philippines to fast track recovery from the worst health and economic crisis in its history because of COVID-19. But it is not at all about health recovery as the Duterte administration hypes.

In the National Expenditure Program (NEP) for 2021 submitted to Congress, the government actually defunds areas that are vital to boost the public health system in the time of a pandemic. These include those for disease surveillance, health infrastructure, and human resource capacity building. Despite the glaring health and economic needs exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the NEP for 2021 reflects how the government sticks to its old priorities such as transport infrastructure and defense, which are not what the situation urgently requires.

Making the health system weaker

The effect of COVID-19 on the health and livelihoods of the Filipino people is more severe compared to other nations. While countries around the world are starting to recover from the pandemic, the Philippines has the most total and new COVID-19 cases and the most deaths per million population in East Asia.

COVID-19 is stretching the health system’s capacity and the vaccine for the coronavirus is still far from the people’s reach. It is only rational and urgent to ensure that resources to further enhance and capacitate the country’s health system are made available. However, the government is not prioritizing this.

Bayanihan 2, a stimulus package aiming to cushion the effects of the pandemic, allots only Php30.5 billion for health-related responses to COVID such as tracing, treatment, support for health workers, health facilities, and pandemic research. There is also a Php10-billion standby fund for testing, which is paltry according to health advocates.

The proposed 2021 budget for the Department of Health meanwhile has been increased from Php104 billion in 2020 to Php131.7 billion in 2021 or a Php27.7-billion hike. But allotments for some of the most essential programs for health recovery have been slashed.

Selected Health Programs, 2017-2021

Selected Health Programs
Infogram

The budget for the Epidemiology and Surveillance program, which is important to control the spread of diseases through timely data and research, was halved in 2020 – from Php263 million in 2019 to Php116 million this year. A larger budget would clearly have helped strengthen preventive measures versus COVID-19 in the country at the beginning of the year when the first cases emerged. Yet despite the proven importance of this program, the government even proposes to reduce it further to Php113 million in 2021.

The proposed budget allocation for the Health Facilities Enhancement Program (HFEP), which ensures the maintenance and quality of public healthcare facilities, also decreases this year. HFEP is actually being allocated lower and lower budgets each year as hospitals are obliged to generate their own income to fund infrastructure-building and maintenance. From an Php8.4 billion budget for HFEP in 2020, the proposed budget for 2021 is only Php4.8 billion, or almost 50% less than its current budget.

The National Reference Laboratories are vital in detecting and testing COVID-19 cases and other emerging diseases. But the proposed budget for these decreases from the present Php326 million to Php289 million.

Even though one of the main issues during this pandemic is poor data management and reporting by the DOH, the proposed budget for Health Information Technology drops massively from Php1.2 billion in 2020 – which it failed to use properly – to Php97 million, or a 92% decrease.

The proposed budget allocation for Human Resource for Health (HRH) deployment increases, but the program that ensures that the health workforce is equipped with proper training and knowledge to deal with different medical situations is decreased. The budget for HRH Institutional and Capacity Management has been cut by Php15 million.

The DOH’s COVID-19 specific programs – the Php4.2 billion Health System Enhancement to Address and Limit COVID-19 and the Php1 billion Philippines COVID-19 Emergency Response Project – are mere drops in the country’s budget bucket.

What government cares for

The Duterte administration’s proposed budget for 2021 shows how little it cares for the health and socioeconomic recovery of the Filipino people. The biggest chunk of the proposed 2021 budget goes to the Php1.1 trillion “Build, Build, Build” program taking up 24% of the total budget. Only a tiny fraction of this goes to health infrastructure with the DOH getting just Php2.3 billion or barely one-fifth of one percent (0.2%) of total infrastructure spending.

Many of the infrastructure projects lined up – such as big-ticket railways and roads funded with China and Japan loans – are not as urgently needed as facilities for health and more direct measures to support the socioeconomic recovery of distressed households and small businesses.

The government is apparently only willing to spend Php203.1 billion on its so-called universal health care program including to respond to the pandemic – this is just 4.5% of the total proposed budget for 2021. As it is, the Php1.1 trillion infrastructure budget is almost 5 ½ times larger.

The proposed budget for the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) is Php667.3 billion or over five times that of the DOH. The government will allocate Php7.6 billion for primary roads’ maintenance and repair alone which is almost three times the size of the DOH budget for the COVID-19 vaccine, at only Php2.4 billion.

The DOH’s proposed Php203.1 billion budget – even including the budget for PhilHealth – ranks only 5th among department budgets in 2021. This is because, amid the unprecedented public health emergency, the DOH’s proposed 2021 budget is only a Php25.4 billion increase from the GAA this year.

The DPWH gets a much bigger Php228.4 billion increase to Php667.3 billion, as does the Department of National Defense (DND) which gets a Php29.4 billion increase to Php209.1 billion. The military and police forces will still be receiving more funds than the health sector.

The Duterte administration’s proposed 2021 budget bares how it is not changing its priorities despite the marked worsening of the Philippine health situation. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure has been consistently a priority over the health sector which, if anything, is even being distorted and privatized. The people’s health and strengthening the public health system are among the most immediate areas needing attention which, apparently, the administration simply refuses to give. #

‘Doc Ed’ Villegas dies after massive stroke

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Edberto Malvar Villegas, retired University of the Philippines-Manila and De La Salle University professor, book author and Marxist political economist died Monday night, September 7, after suffering a massive stroke last Friday.

Villegas, 80, died at the Makati Medical Center at 9:56pm, sources informed Kodao.

A founding member of the Kabataang Makabayan in November 1964, Villegas was a two-year political detainee under Ferdinand Marcos’ martial law and suffered intense physical and psychological torture along with his late wife Lilia.

He was chairperson of the University of the Philippines (UP) Political-Economy Department for several years and was a board member of research group IBON Foundation at the time of his death.

He also served as secretary general of the Alliance of Concerned Teachers from 1996 to 2001.

Villegas was a doctor in public administration.

A political economy expert, Villegas was a long-time National Democratic Front of the Philippines Negotiating Panel resource person on social and economic reforms.

He authored several books on economy and imperialism, including Studies in Philippine Political Economy; Global Finance Capital and the Philippine Financial System; Political Economy of Philippine Labor Laws; Japanese Capital and Investments in Southeast Asia; A Guide to Karl Marx’s Das Kapital; Oil Imperialism in the Philippines; Japanese Capitalism and the Asian Development Bank; Global Finance Capital and the Philippine Financial System as well as many pamphlets and essays.

Villegas’ political economy books are required reading for national democratic activists.

Villegas authored the novel Sebyo and Barikada: Maikling Kuwento ng mga Pilipino. He also wrote poetry.

He edited the historical book Gen. Malvar and the Philippine Revolution, authored by Doroteo Abaya and Bernard Karganilla and published in 1998.

Villegas was a grandson of General Miguel Malvar who served as interim President of the First Philippine Republic after Emilio Aguinaldo was captured by the Americans in Palanan, Isabela in 1901.

Villegas is survived by his two children, Karl and Iona, and grandchild Miguel as well as brothers Jose and Bernardo.

Abaya said Villegas will be interned at the family mausoleum in Sto. Tomas, Batangas on September 11. # (Raymund B. Villanueva)

Bayanihan 2: Too small, hinders health and recovery

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by Sonny Africa

The beggarly Bayanihan 2 bill preferred by the economic managers and imposed on Congress is much too small for the magnitude of the crisis facing the country. It makes health and recovery years away and farther than ever.

The Bayanihan 2 bill passed by the bicameral conference committee and ratified by the Senate is worth just Php165.5 billion. Of this, Php25.5 billion is even just a “standby fund”, only available once “additional funds are generated”.

Every centavo spent of Bayanihan 2 is welcome. There’s no doubt about that because the extraordinary scale of the health and economic crisis demands extraordinary spending. The problem is that the Duterte administration is spending far too little for the problem at hand.

Looked at in aggregate, Bayanihan 2 pales compared to the as much as Php1.9 trillion lost in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 because of the pandemic. This includes not just what is lost from the economy contracting but from what it should have been if it kept on growing.

But the shortfall is even clearer looking at the details. Bayanihan 2 allots Php30.5 billion for health-related responses spanning tracing, treatment, support for health workers, health facilities and pandemic research.

Bayanihan to Recover as One Act

Yet the health infrastructure spending doesn’t even make up for huge budget cuts here since the start of the Duterte administration. There’s Php10 billion budget for testing but this is in the standby fund and made contingent on finding new funds, which the economic managers are so sparing in doing.

The provision for Php5,000-8,000 in emergency cash subsidies is necessary but only Php13 billion is allotted for this. This is paltry compared to how the lockdown-induced recession has already displaced anywhere from 20.4 million to as much as 27 million of the labor force (43-57% of the labor force), according to IBON’s estimates.

Bayanihan 2 will help just 1.6-2.6 million beneficiaries at most and, even then, not by much. At Php5,000-8,000 per household, it will only give the equivalent of a token Php37-60 per person per day for a month. This paucity is little changed even if the Php6 billion budget for social welfare department programs, Php820 million for overseas Filipinos, and Php180 million for national athletes and coaches is added.

The budget for the transport programs includes Php5.6 billion for displaced public utility vehicle (PUV) drivers especially jeepney drivers. But this isn’t even enough to compensate them for the now five months that the government has kept them out of work and driven into poverty.

Much more substantial cash assistance is needed to improve household welfare in these difficult times. This also has macroeconomic benefit of boosting aggregate demand and stimulating a virtuous cycle of spending and production. Economic activity is impossible and production support will be futile if too many are jobless and have nothing to spend.

There’s Php77.1 billion for production and enterprise support. This includes Php24 billion for agriculture which gives the sector an emphasis in Bayanihan 2 that it is due. There is also Php39.5 billion for government financial institutions (GFIs) to support lending, Php9.5 billion for transport programs, and Php4.1 billion for tourism programs.

The total amount is however only going to help a few of the 997,900 micro, small and medium enterprises in the country employing 5.7 million workers – and probably none of the hundreds of thousands more informal and unregistered enterprises. If available, the additional Php15.5 billion under the standby fund for low interest Land Bank of the Philippines (LBP) and Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) loans will help but still not be enough.

The Php8.9 billion for education is critical to keep the youth educated and eventually productive. But the budget is a mere fraction of the tens of billions of pesos needed to ensure that schools are safe and have internet connectivity, and to help parents keep their children in school. There are some 70,000 elementary and secondary schools and around 2,000 higher education institutions in the country.

The remaining Php3.5 billion for local government units (LGUs) will also certainly help the recipients but, measured against the scale of the intervention needed across the breadth of the economy, are almost tokenism.

The economy will rebound somehow but this will be slight and Bayanihan 2 is too small to hasten real recovery. The government is the only entity in a position to implement the huge stimulus program the economy needs and there needs to be more boldness to spend and, especially, to raise money for this.

The Duterte administration can raise the money needed if it really wanted to. In the short-term it can realign from infrastructure projects and at least some of the debt servicing to development agencies and friendly official creditors.

Big-ticket infrastructure projects that are no longer economically or financially viable, or are too import- or capital- intensive, can be put off or shelved. Debt service to development banks and the like can be restructured on the argument that there are more pressing uses for scarce government funds.

The government can actually wield its creditworthiness to borrow if needed on favorable terms. The best way to pay for any additional debt is not from more consumption taxes on the people but from higher income and wealth taxes on the country’s super-rich. The huge accumulated wealth concentrated in the few is more than enough for all the stimulus the country needs and can be the foundation of a credible medium-term fiscal plan.

A much more progressive tax system with higher direct taxes is the most rational and sustainable source of government revenues. This most of all means a wealth tax on the country’s super-rich (raising Php240 billion annually from just the 50 richest Filipinos), higher personal income taxes on the richest 2.5% of families (Php130 billion), and a two-tiered corporate income tax scheme (Php70 billion).

The economic managers’ obsession with creditworthiness is the binding constraint to fighting COVID-19 and the economic misery in its wake. This self-imposed fiscal straitjacket is misguided. Spending less, not spending more, is keeping the country off the path to health and recovery.

The country is grossly short-changed by Bayanihan 2. It’s all the people are getting not because it’s all the government can afford but rather because it’s all the Duterte administration wants to give.

Beyond capacity and overwhelming incompetence

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by Maricar R. Piedad

The Philippines has been in varying intensities of community quarantine for 124 days—a world record in terms of the longest lockdown response to COVID-19. But the fight against the virus is still far from over, and now it seems like the country is back to square one—overwhelmed hospitals, rising number of cases, and overall chaos. All those days in lockdown have been wasted because of the Duterte administration’s louche decisions and inaction on building up the healthcare system’s capacity for COVID-19 response.

The government, more than ever, should acknowledge the graveness of the crisis. It should prioritize implementing solutions to flatten the curve rather than push business-as-usual measures towards so-called recovery when the imminent threat of the pandemic continues to stare every Filipino in the face.

So far, the measures it has taken—lockdowns, limited triage testing, and waiting for a vaccine from other countries—have been passive.

On the verge of collapse

The current healthcare system is now operating close to its maximum capacity with cases exceeding 63,000; already reaching the projection of cases 60,000-70,000 by the end of July and cases is increasing by almost 1,000 daily. Still, government has no clear and concrete plan to expand testing triage and capacity.

The sluggish COVID-19 testing is prolonging the country’s fight against the virus. Only a small portion of asymptomatic cases are being detected because of the absence of mass testing. Compared to the rest of the world, the Philippines has a low number of asymptomatic cases. But this is mainly because less than one percent of the country’s total population has been tested for COVID-19, almost six months after the first reported case. As of writing, only 1,009,511 individuals have been tested.

According to the adjusted estimates of the University of the Philippines (UP) as of July 13, the mean number of hospitalized patients is 23,747 and it can reach up to 28,024. As of now, the total hospital bed capacity is at 15,548, with 1,661 ICU beds, 10,410 isolation beds, and 3,477 ward beds. There are only 1,938 mechanical ventilators available. This means that hospitals may need to double their total number of beds before the end of July to accommodate these patients.

However, hospital bed capacity only increased by about 2,019 beds since last month’s total bed capacity of 13,529, according to the Department of Health (DOH). There was also no significant addition to the mechanical ventilators available which are important to treat critical cases. There was also no notable increase in the COVID-19-dedicated ward and ICU beds. Considering that more suspected and probable cases will be needing hospitalization, the influx of patients seeking medical attention will be beyond the country’s healthcare capacity. The exponential increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases will overwhelm the healthcare system in no time and hospitals will be forced to deny patients due to the lack of facility.

The ICU bed occupancy rate, which is a huge indicator of critical care capacity, is already at 41.2% as of the latest DOH data drop. Ward beds are at 57.1%, and isolation beds are at 48.4% occupancy. Majority of the ward and isolation beds occupied are also located in private healthcare facilities. This is despite public hospitals having more COVID-19-allocated beds. This could mean that majority of COVID-19 patients are compelled to receive treatment from private institutions charging higher hospital bills and out-of-pocket expenses due to limited benefit packages from the Philippine Health Insurance Company (PhilHealth).

Out-of-almost-empty-pocket

Ballooning COVID-19-related expenses of Filipino patients is another major issue that the government should address. The medical bills of some COVID-19 patients have ranged from hundreds of thousands to millions of pesos, depending on the severity of the case. For instance, the bill of one recovered patient reached Php1.312 million for a 15-day confinement. According to the patient, a huge chunk of the medical bill were charges for laboratory tests, doctors’ professional fees, intubation, and the ventilator and respirator she used throughout her admission. Though all her medical expenses were fully covered by PhilHealth, this is no longer the case for COVID-19 patients admitted in accredited hospitals from April 15 onwards.

At the start of the pandemic, the Duterte administration assured the public that it has individuals infected with COVID-19 covered. However, PhilHealth announced in early April that it would no longer shoulder all expenses and would instead implement case rate packages for confirmed and probable cases effective April 15. According to PhilHealth Circular 2020-0009, patients with mild pneumonia can avail of a maximum coverage of Php43,997, while moderate and severe pneumonia patients can have a maximum amount coverage of Php143,267 and Php333,519, respectively. Critical patients, on the other hand, can access a Php786,384-worth maximum benefit.

But PhilHealth computations for these packages contradict the government’s assurances and may not be enough to cover the numerous medical procedures COVID-19 patients must undergo. Medical expenses in excess of the case rates will be paid out-of-pocket, and the amount could be considerable. If the patient with the Php1.312 million medical bill for example had been confined after April 15, PhilHealth would have just paid the Php333,519 maximum coverage for severe pneumonia patients. The remaining Php978,481 or almost 75% of the patient’s total medical bill would have to be paid out-of-pocket.

The abrupt economic shutdown resulted in most Filipinos losing income and struggling with the recent rise in the cost of living, especially the poor and vulnerable. Many of them can ill-afford to pay for medical expenses and may no longer consult doctors despite having symptoms.

Burning Out

Aside from the health infrastructure, the government also needs to reinforce the country’s human resource for health. Even before the pandemic, Filipino doctors and nurses were already treating patients beyond their capacity.  According to the Philippine Health Review 2018, there are 3.9 doctors and 8.6 nurses for 10,000 people. This medical worker to patient ratio is a far cry from the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended 10 doctors and 20 nurses for every 10,000 population.

A Philippine Institute of Development Studies (PIDS) study also noted that, in a 24-hour set-up, 1 doctor and 2 nurses will be needed to treat 6 ward patients. Critical care patients will need 1 doctor and 1 nurse each as well as other special healthcare workers such as a pulmonologist, intensivist, infectious disease specialist, and mechanical ventilator technicians.

The available healthcare workers in the country will not suffice. With no significant addition to the health workforce, the country’s doctors and nurses will be overwhelmed and exhausted. There will also be a greater risk of infection for medical workers since having more patients could mean more exposure to COVID-19. There are already 3,805 healthcare workers infected and 35 of them have already died. 

The DOH decision to reassign physicians under the Doctors to the Barrios program is another sign that there are not enough doctors in COVID-19 treatment hospitals and reinforcements are urgently needed. However, only 5,216 health workers have so far been hired to fill the DOH-approved 9,297 slots for emergency hire. This slow hiring means medical frontliners continue to work beyond their capacity to treat the piling number of COVID-19 patients. The DOH itself has also noted the difficulty in hiring health workers because many of them have private services that they cannot leave. It also does not help that the entry level salary for healthcare workers is low. For example, a medical laboratory technician—which is under salary grade 6, can only earn up to Php 15,524 per month.

The country’s shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) is also contributing to the huge number of infected health workers. According to the WHO, the global shortage of PPEs is affecting healthcare workers worldwide. This shortage could have been eased if the country had the means to manufacture its own PPEs, such as a local textile industry. But the country is reliant on imported PPEs. The Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (PhilExport) stated that despite factories’ willingness to produce PPEs, they cannot simply do so because of the lack of fabric and other materials. Had there been a Philippine industry for essential health protection needs, infection among front liners and in general would have been minimized.

Overcoming incompetence

The Duterte administration’s failed COVID-19 strategy in ending the current health crisis exposes its incompetence and lack of sensibility. The 124 days spent in lockdown and the opportunity costs incurred during this period have been wasted because the government failed to effectively intervene and keep the healthcare system from collapsing. It should now set its priorities straight and put all hands on deck to amplify health responses.

The government is not prioritizing funding for the healthcare system and social amelioration but it is pushing for ill-timed programs that will allegedly help in the country’s economic recovery. A concrete example is the continuation of the Duterte administration’s “Build, Build, Build” program despite the more pressing need to reallocate more funds for COVID-19 response.

The Philippine Program for Recovery with Equity and Solidarity (PH-PROGRESO) of the government shows that it is more inclined to save big businesses first before the Filipino people. The huge budget allocated for private corporations’ benefit should be realigned to help the overwhelmed healthcare structure. Fiscal measures for health and economic recovery should go hand in hand instead of pitting one against the other since overall economic performance is very much reliant on the well-being of the Filipino work force.  

Inadequate and relaxed response to COVID-19 hinders the Philippine economy from fully opening. It has only been two months since the gradual operation of businesses and since workers returned to their respective workplaces but the government is already losing control of the situation. Aside from the uncontrollable spread of the disease, hospitals are now reporting that they reached their maximum critical care capacity. Forty-eight hospitals already reported that their ICU beds are now full, and it is alarming that 50% of these hospitals are located in the National Capital Region (NCR). Meanwhile, Cebu City—which is the new epicenter of the disease in the country, is also nearing the danger zone in its critical care capacity. If the population of the Philippines’ major economic hubs keep on getting sick, then it will be much harder for the economy to recover its losses.

The government must protect first the Filipino people from the COVID-19 threat. Majority of Filipino workers are at risk of contracting the disease. The economy cannot recover without a healthy workforce to power it. According to UP’s analysis, half of the Philippines’ major economic contributors are considered high risk spreaders of COVID-19, such as construction workers, security guards and commercial drivers. Many of them are minimum wage earners lacking adequate social benefits and protection. This makes them more vulnerable to infection and with limited means to pay for expensive COVID-19 treatment.

The government should speed up the efforts in broadening and building up testing and hospital capacity.  More than ever, it should make healthcare accessible and affordable for every Filipino. This includes making COVID-19 testing and treatment free for all. The pandemic will not be over as long as infected Filipinos are not isolated and treated due to the lack of facilities and expensive healthcare.

In the end, the entire Philippine economy will suffer if Filipinos are not protected from this disease. The economic downgrade will be far greater if the coronavirus crisis lasts longer. The government cannot afford another lockdown since it will not only endanger the economy but will also bring intense hunger and more hardship. It must act now and prevent the health system from collapsing and the Filipino people from succumbing to both the pandemic and to poverty. #

The unbelievable indifference of the Duterte administration

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By Sonny Africa

The Duterte government insists that it is successfully responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. The reality is a little bit different – it hasn’t done enough, and is planning to do even less.

The coronavirus is spreading faster than ever. It took over three months to reach the first 10,000 confirmed cases but less than a week to add the last 10,000, at over 57,000 to date. University of the Philippines (UP) researchers forecast between 100,000 to 131,000 cases by the end of August.

Characteristically, the government’s containment measure of choice was a military lockdown – among the fiercest and longest in the world. It justified this as harsh but necessary, repeating a favored talking point used to justify all sorts of sins.

The effect on the economy and the people was certainly brutal.

The country was plunged into the worst crisis of mass unemployment in its history with 14 million unemployed and a 22% unemployment rate in April 2020, by IBON’s reckoning. The combined 20.4 million unemployed and underemployed are over two-fifths (40.2%) of the presumed labor force. These correct for serious underestimation in officially released figures.

The joblessness and collapse in livelihoods are expected to ease as restrictions are relaxed. But whatever improvement will still not be enough to return to a pre-pandemic state.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 2.0-3.4% for the whole of 2020, according to the government’s Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC). The World Bank has a slightly more optimistic projection of -1.9% while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) see it worse at -3.6% and -3.8%, respectively.

This will be the worst growth performance in 35 years since the -7.3% (negative) GDP growth in 1983 and 1984. But if the low estimates materialize, it will also be the biggest decline from positive growth ever recorded.

As it is, the economy is well on the way to its fourth straight year of slowing growth. It already contracted at -0.2% growth in the first quarter of 2020 with just two weeks’ worth of lockdowns. The second quarter figures that will come out in August will be much worse.

Unhealthy response

No one is likely to have thought that the worst public health crisis and economic decline in the country’s history would be enough to spur the Duterte administration to reform its anti-democratic and anti-development ways. It didn’t.

The government’s military-dominated COVID-19 response team has proven unfit for purpose and the steeply rising cases today point to the protracted lockdown being squandered. Yet the rise in reported cases do not even give the complete picture.

To date, there’s a validation backlog of over 15,000. The positivity rate of 12.4% meanwhile indicates that testing is still, months into the pandemic, far below the levels needed. Local transmission is still gaining momentum even as other Southeast Asian countries have already stopped theirs.

The hazy picture is a poor starting point for the contact tracing, isolation and selective quarantines needed. But the rise in COVID-19 cases is sufficient to show how social distancing and other precautionary measures can’t go far enough.

Assuming all pandemic-related deaths are accounted for, the 1,534 reported deaths are still relatively few and the number of daily fatalities fortunately fewer than the peak in March. This may however soon change as the virus spreads in the coming weeks and as the health system becomes overstretched even just by those who can afford it.

Hospital capacity hasn’t been beefed up so much as portions of it carved out at the expense of non-COVID-19 cases. The National Capital Region (NCR) and Cebu are the pandemic’s epicenters in the country. As much as 19 NCR hospitals are at or nearing their capacity of ICU beds for COVID-19 patients – 14 of which were acknowledged by the Department of Health (DOH) last week – while Cebu’s hospitals are already overwhelmed.

Hyped assistance

The inadequacy of the health response is more disturbing in how the time for this was bought with lost incomes, small business closures, joblessness and hunger. Tens of millions of Filipinos even suffered more than they should have because of similarly inadequate emergency relief.

At the start of the lockdowns, 18 million beneficiary households were promised Php5,000-8,000 in monthly cash subsidies for just two months. That right there is an immediate problem – the lockdowns are running on four months now, since mid-March, with only partial easing in June.

Emergency subsidies reportedly reaching 19.4 million beneficiaries under various programs of the departments of social welfare, labor and agriculture sounds impressive.

However, the aid was very slow in coming. Most beneficiaries had to wait 6-10 weeks before getting their first monthly tranche.

The aid is also very stingy. Taken altogether, the first tranche of the cash subsidy programs only amounts to an average of Php5,611 per beneficiary family. Over the last four months this comes out to just Php11 per person per day.

The government has even recanted and said that only 12 million beneficiaries will get the second tranche. But the number of those who will actually get this second tranche may be even less than that. The government is invoking bureaucratic difficulties to explain why only 1.4 million of the 12 million have received this tranche to date.

These emergency cash subsidies are also much lower than the latest official poverty threshold of Php10,727 monthly for a family of five. Yet this miserly relief will even seem generous in the period to come because little more is forthcoming. The official government policy was succinctly put by the presidential spokesperson recently: “We cannot afford to give ayuda (aid) to keep everyone alive.”

Business as usual

The Duterte administration’s lockdowns precipitated what may be the greatest economic collapse in Philippine history. The lockdowns per se are of course temporary – indeed, as too the pandemic, even if this will linger for at least another year or more.

Though temporary, the simultaneous demand and supply shock to the Philippine economy, other countries, and the global economy as a whole is unprecedented in the modern era. The world economy is said to be undergoing its worst recession since the Great Depression.

Yet apart from a momentary surge in emergency relief and despite lip service to the economic crisis, it bizarrely still seems to be business as usual for the economic managers. There are a couple of reasons for this.

The most basic is how the economic managers – and most of our political leaders – are blinded by the free market dogma imbibed over four decades of neoliberal globalization. There is a rigid faith that market forces will be enough to meet the pandemic-driven economic challenge. This is matched by an inability to grasp that responsible state intervention is needed not just to deal with the crisis but for long-term national development.

But there is also an extreme narrow-mindedness common among many afflicted by that dogma – that ‘creditworthiness’, ‘competitiveness’ and ‘investor-friendliness’ are not just a means to but actually ends of development. The people who make up the majority of the economy are peripheral and ever in the margins.

These go far in explaining the lack of urgency and, apparently, seeing the current crisis as an inconvenient but minor speed bump on the highway to free market-driven progress.

Fragments of a response

Genuine attention would start with immediately coming up with a plan fitting the vastly changed pandemic-driven crisis conditions. Nearly six months into the pandemic, all that the people have are fragments – including fragments which are self-evidently exaggerated to give the impression of substantial action.

The economic team came up with a “4-pillar strategy” in April that was eventually rebranded as the Philippine Program for Recovery with Equity and Solidarity (PH-PROGRESO). Supposedly worth Php1.7 trillion or an impressive 9.1% of GDP, this figure was grossly bloated by double-counting of interventions and their sources of financing, by conflating actual spending with merely foregone tax and tariff revenues, and by including additional liquidity from monetary measures.

The Inter-Agency Task Force Technical Working Group for Anticipatory and Forward Planning (IATF-TWG for AFP) released its We Recover As One report in May. This seemed more detailed, comprehensive and forward-looking. There are some relevant health and education measures.

But some very important measures are missing – expanding the public health system, social protection to help everyone in need, and protecting jobs, wages and workers’ rights. Trade, industrial and agricultural measures also seem oblivious to unsound fundamentals, the global crisis, and accelerating protectionism. On the other hand, unfunded feel-good platitudes are aplenty.

The economic managers started working with Congress on a Bayanihan 2 bill in June. This replaces the Php1.3 trillion package that Congress originally proposed but which the finance department summarily shot down ostensibly for lack of funds. The Bayanihan 2 proposal is now just one-tenth in size at Php140 billion.

At present, the stinginess of the economic managers is the biggest binding constraint to addressing the pandemic, alleviating economic distress of poor households, and economic recovery. The Php140 billion is much too small compared to the magnitude of the crisis at hand. At the same time, the sweeping insistence on infrastructure as a magic bullet and on sacrosanct debt servicing means continued unproductive spending rather than on what would have the greatest development impact.

A Philippine Economic Recovery Plan was supposed to be made public at the pre-SONA forum of the economic and infrastructure cluster on July 8. But this was not presented and is still strangely kept secret. Neither the Department of Finance (DOF) nor the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) websites share this with the public, and a direct request was declined.

It’s five-and-a-half months since the first confirmed COVID-19 case in the Philippines, and about four months since declaring a public health emergency, a state of national emergency, and the start of lockdowns. The Duterte administration has throughout portrayed itself as doing everything it needs to.

In reality, it seems to be doing as little as it can. A new anti-terrorism law was apparently even seen as more urgent than clinching a stimulus program. This languid COVID-19 response is bringing us to the edge of the precipice on both the health and economic fronts. #

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Kodao publishes IBON articles as part of a content-sharing agreement.

IBON opens to gov’t inspection days before anti-terrorism law effectivity

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With the Anti-Terrorism Law (ATL) soon coming into effect, research group IBON opened their office for inspection by the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) and Bgy. Sacred Heart officials last Wednesday, July 15.

The group said they requested the ocular inspection to show their transparency and prove the absence of illegal materials and equipment on the premises.

[WATCH LIVE VIDEO HERE]

“This is an important contribution to IBON asserting its character as a legitimate organization that does not, never has, and never will have the guns, explosives, and other illegal items that are wont to be planted to justify spurious search warrants and bogus charges against activists and human rights defenders,” the group’s executive director Sonny Africa said.

The group said that it also wants to protect the rights and ensure the safety of IBON staff and tenants.

IBON Foundation said the inspection is in anticipation of the ATL which is presumed to become effective on July 18.

The group recalled the Duterte administration’s continued disinformation drive about IBON which appears to be laying the groundwork for using the ATL against it.

Africa expressed concern that the draconian and oppressive law will be used to try and hinder IBON’s research, education and advocacy work.

The CHR first inspected IBON premises in November 2019 after a reported imminent police operation on its building.

It confirmed the absence of anything illegal, irregular, or prohibited on the premises.

IBON is among many non-government organizations actively red-tagged by the National Task Force to End Local Communism and Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) since late 2018. 

The group has repeatedly refuted allegations by the government task force that it supports terrorism.

The IBON building also houses AlterMidya and IBON International who are also targets of government harassment and red-tagging.

Last February, IBON lodged a complaint at the Office of the Ombudsman against NTF-ELCAC officials: National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon; Armed Forces of the Philippines Deputy Chief of Operations Brigadier General Antonio Parlade; and Presidential Communications and Operations Office secretary Lorraine Badoy. This was for their malicious and baseless red-tagging of IBON since 2018.

IBON said that it supports petitions against the Anti-Terrorism Law filed at the Supreme Court.

The law must be declared unconstitutional for being overly vague in its definition of terrorism. It gives room to target economic, social, cultural, civil and political rights defenders and in doing so undermines prospects for economic democracy, human rights and social justice. These are if anything more crucial than ever at this time of the COVID-19 pandemic, said the group. #

On the BBB fix: Why do you build me up?

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by Jose Lorenzo Lim

In its recent pre-SONA forum, the economic team spent the most time talking about four years of infrastructure accomplishments. On the other hand, there was next to nothing about the government’s plans for economic recovery from the serious crisis brought on by the pandemic. The misplaced emphasis on infrastructure during the pre-SONA forum only reflects the misplaced emphasis on infrastructure as some kind of magic bullet for the country’s development.

The Philippine economy has a basic problem – it is dependent on external and temporary drivers of growth. These include overseas remittances and foreign investments especially for business process outsourcing (BPOs) and manufacturing. Yet COVID-19 wreaked havoc on these. Overseas remittances fell by 5% in March as thousands of OFWs were repatriated back to the Philippines. BPO investments are slowing down more than ever and export demand is weakening from a sluggish global economy.

The economy lacks substantial and sustainable internal drivers of growth such as from developing the core productive sectors of agriculture and manufacturing. Yet, instead of developing these, the government is looking to infrastructure spending to spur growth even if this is superficial and short- term.

More than any other government since the Marcos era, the Duterte administration is extremely dependent on public infrastructure spending to boost growth. It has been relying on infrastructure as a major economic stimulus long before COVID-19. The longest lockdown in the world delayed implementation of various infrastructure projects around the country.

Yet the government is still hell-bent on pursuing a grand infrastructure program amid the pandemic and despite its actually bleak accomplishments so far. The government says it will revise its list of infrastructure projects to adapt to COVID-19. But does it really have the will to shift the focus of its infrastructure program, or even the capacity to fully implement this?

2 out of 75

The Philippines was said to lag behind its neighboring Asian countries in terms of infrastructure. The Duterte government dreamed of building high-impact infrastructure projects through the Build, Build, Build (BBB) program.  BBB aims to build more railways, urban mass transport, airports and seaports, more bridges and roads, and new and better cities. The program is estimated to cost Php8 to 9 trillion from 2017-2022.

The BBB program originally had 75 infrastructure flagship projects (IFPs) composed of transportation (53), water resources (15), power/energy (4), and social infrastructure (3). The government said these projects would facilitate efficient movement of goods and help bring down production costs in the country. They would also improve the income of rural families, encourage countryside development, and create 1.7 million jobs by 2022.  These are grand claims considering that the 75 IFPs were mainly concentrated in the National Capital Region (NCR), Region III, and Region IV-A and IV-B which are the trading centers of the country.

Altogether, the 75 IFPs were estimated to cost around Php2.1 trillion. The government planned to tap official development assistance (ODA) and the private sector to fund these. Of the 75 IFPs, ODA would fund 57 worth Php2 trillion, public private partnerships or PPP would fund 6 worth Php23.3 billion, and government budget would be allocated for 12 IFPs worth Php138.5 billion. This means that most of the 75 IFPs would be funded with loans from various countries.

The status of the projects was telling of its progress. Data from the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) shows that only two out of the 75 IFPs were completed in November 2018.  These were improvements along the Pasig River from Delpan Bridge to Napindan Channel (Phase IV) and the selective dredging of the Pulangi River. It is also worth noting that the Pasig-Marikina River Channel Improvement Project has three other phases that started as early as 2009. Only Phase IV was constructed during the Duterte administration. NEDA’s last update on the status of the 75 IFPs on July 2019 reported the same two projects as being completed. 

38 out of 100 before Duterte steps down?

In November 2019, the Duterte government announced that it revised the list of IFPs from 75 to 100 in order to ‘streamline’ the list and make it ‘more feasible’. This was due to the slow rate at which projects were going. With their new list, the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) expects only 38 of the 100 IFPs to be completed by the time Pres. Duterte steps down.

The 100 IFPs are composed of projects for transport and mobility (73), water resources (10), urban development (9), information and communication technology or ICT (6), and power and energy (2). The list is primarily composed of economic infrastructure to make the country more palatable to investors, which has basically been the basis of infrastructure planning for a long time. Noticeably, the current infrastructure program lacks social infrastructure, which is much needed by Filipinos to live humanely and decently.

The 100 IFPs are worth around Php4.3 trillion and ODA is the biggest funding source. There will be Php2.4 trillion funded with ODA, followed by Php1.2 trillion through PPP, and Php172 billion funded solely from the General Appropriations Act (GAA). The glaring over-reliance on loans and private sector funding reflects the sore absence of government capacity for these.

Leading the ODA funders for the 100 IFPs is Japan with a total of around Php1.3 trillion in loans, China with Php700 billion, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with Php273 billion. Data from NEDA as of June 2019 show that the Philippines has already received US$8.1 billion worth of ODA loans from Japan, US$2.8 billion from ADB, and US$273 million from China.

The short-sightedness of the government’s infrastructure program was really highlighted during the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government had to scramble to convert evacuation centers into quarantine facilities to absorb the rising number of COVID-19 cases. More alarming is how just recently 11 hospitals in Metro Manila have reached full capacity for their COVID-19 dedicated beds.

The government announced a few weeks ago that construction of some road projects under the 100 IFPs will resume. Still, COVID-19 has to a certain extent compelled government to announce that it will come up with a revised list of the 100 IFPs to cater to the country’s health needs.

In line with reviewing the current list of 100 IFPs, the government could reconsider large projects such as the Metro Manila Subway Projects Phase 1 and the Safe Philippines Project Phase 1. Instead of spending on these import- and capital-intensive projects, the budget could instead be used for subsidizing jeepney modernization. This would benefit more Filipino commuters as well as support the employment of thousands of jeepney drivers.

The controversial Kaliwa Dam should also be reconsidered for the environmental and community impacts combined with the nature of the onerous loan agreement.  Another project that could be shelved is the Bataan-Cavite Interlink Bridge. The huge amount spent to shorten travel time may not deliver commensurate returns, and the money is likely spent better on more urgent pandemic-related needs. Additionally, the Safe Philippines Project Phase 1, a CCTV surveillance system project, may just make Filipinos more unsafe especially in the current repressive political environment.

The ODA loans are specifically for these projects but the government can negotiate with Japan, China and the ADB to realign these towards the country’s more urgent needs. These lenders say they are focused on promoting development so the Philippine government should not be afraid to hold them up to that intent.

The government has not yet released its supposedly revised list of projects because of the pandemic. The public is waiting to see how much of the revised list includes health, housing, and education-related infrastructure.  COVID-19 may also have pushed the implementation of some projects back, and the public deserves to know about delays and how many would be completed before President Duterte steps down.

Complementing the New Normal

The BBB program gives the impression that building more infrastructure per se is the key to sustained long-term economic growth. This notion is reinforced by the visible short-term stimulus that large-scale construction provides. New bridges, roads, airports, and railways also seem to give palpable gains. The real economic question however is not just whether there are benefits but if these benefits are worth the costs.

Improving mobility around the country, which comprises majority of BBB projects, is not in itself enough to improve the country’s economy. Without active promotion of agriculture and manufacturing, the improved infrastructure will mainly benefit just the service- and trading-oriented sectors that dominate our shallow economy.

Infrastructure can contribute to long-term economic growth if it helps push the country’s agricultural and manufacturing potential. Policy changes are needed for this to happen. The government has to protect and support agriculture which unfortunately has been backsliding especially with rice liberalization. Additionally, the Filipino manufacturing sector is waning due to investment liberalization that favors foreign investors at the expense of nurturing domestic capital. The country’s policies are even more misguided amid increasing protectionism and departures from liberalization globally.

The government should release the revised infrastructure list immediately. As healthcare has become the priority, the government should add more social infrastructure like hospitals to help deal with congested health facilities. More socialized housing units could also help decongest urban settlements in the country and help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Moreover, policy reforms such as protecting agriculture and the manufacturing sector to complement the country’s revised infrastructure plan can result in long-term economic growth to benefit Filipinos. Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in a way that prioritizes the people’s well-being should be the present challenge and government should realign its infrastructure program to complement this. #

Gov’t should check SAP’s gross failure as COVID cases rise – IBON

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by IBON Media & Communications

Research group IBON said that the Duterte government should correct the huge shortfall of the Social Amelioration Program (SAP) especially amid a continuously increasing number of COVID-19 cases.

Aside from getting the stingy first tranche of emergency subsidies, 9 million of the 18 million target recipients and 1.5 million more “wait-listed” beneficiaries will no longer get the second tranche.

This is as the government limits distribution to residents in enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and modified ECQ (MECQ) areas. Yet, the country reaches a record of 36,438 cases as of June 29.

According to the recently expired Bayanihan law, the Philippine government was supposed to provide emergency subsidies to low-income families and vulnerable sectors whose jobs and incomes were disrupted by the lockdown.

Support amounting to Php5,000-8,000, depending on regional minimum wage rates, was to be given to some 18 million poor households for two months.

The first month-tranche came in the duration of three months, making the already stingy aid even much delayed.

The second month-tranche, on the other hand, according to an inter-agency joint memorandum, will be distributed now only to beneficiaries in the ECQ and MECQ areas.

This reduces the original 17.7 million target beneficiaries to just 8.6 million households in the following areas: Central Luzon except Aurora, the National Capital Region (NCR), Calabarzon, Benguet, Pangasinan, Iloilo, Cebu province, Bacolod City, Davao City, Albay province, and Zamboanga City.

This leaves 9.1 million of the original target SAP beneficiaries affected by the three-month lockdown to make do with the meager first tranche, said IBON. This is even if economic activity cannot fully resume in now general community quarantine (GCQ) and modified GCQ areas.

Considering that Php98.3 billion has been distributed to 17.5 million households as of June 27, IBON computes that the first tranche averages out to Php5,617 per family.

Without the second tranche supposedly for the second month of lockdown, the subsidy amounts to just Php53 per family or Php12 per person per day for the past 106 days since the COVID-19 lockdown started.

Even those who will receive the second tranche will still end up stretching a small amount over three months of lockdown, IBON said.

Some Php6.79 billion in second tranche aid has already been distributed to 1.3 million recipients, or an average of Php5,047 per family.

Combining both tranches, these 1.3 million families each got only a total of Php10,664.

This amounts to Php101 per family or Php23 per family member for each of the 106 lockdown days.

IBON also noted that 5.28 million low-income households even continue to wait for the first tranche of SAP.

This figure includes the remaining 278,206 beneficiaries out of the target 17.7 million according to Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) data as of June 27.

The rest are the families declared by the DSWD in mid-May as also eligible to receive aid but have not received any.

Yet, the government retracted and said that only 3.5 million of the wait-listed beneficiaries in MECQ and ECQ areas as of end-May are to get two tranches of emergency subsidy.

This means that the remaining 1.5 million in GCQ and modified GCQ areas are getting only one tranche.

The country does not seem to be winning the war against COVID-19, but the government has remained indifferent to the impact of the pandemic on the millions of poor families, said IBON.

The Duterte administration has continued penny-pinching even as people’s livelihoods and incomes are already irrecoverable and public health is at risk.

People’s socioeconomic welfare along with an efficient health response are the urgent matters that the Duterte government should be focusing on instead of staying apathetic to the mounting health and economic crisis, IBON said. #

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Kodao publishes IBON reports as part of a content-sharing agreement.

Higher inflation for poorest Filipinos underscores urgent need for continued cash subsidies

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by IBON Media & Communications

Research group IBON said that the higher inflation is problematic but particularly burdens the poorest Filipinos. Inflation rates for the 30% poorest households are higher than the national average.

Especially amid historic joblessness, this affirms how the government should continue giving cash subsidies as income support, the group said.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), headline inflation rose to 2.5% in June 2020 from 2.1% in May 2020.

Behind this uptick are price increases in: transportation, particularly tricycle fares; alcoholic beverages and tobacco; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels; and communication.

However, the 3.0% inflation rate in June for the poorest 30% of households was higher than the headline inflation rate of 2.5 percent.

This means that the cost of living is rising fastest for the country’s poorest households.

IBON said that this is troublesome for millions of poor families suffering interrupted incomes and stingy emergency relief. 

IBON said that the rise in inflation despite repressed consumption during the lockdown is worrying and points to problems in supply and production.

The government is primarily responsible for ensuring these especially during a public emergency.

For instance, the group said, the notable increase in the transport index shows the government’s weakness in ensuring this vital public service.

Rising prices especially for the poorest affirms the urgency of continued income support, IBON said.

The number of beneficiaries getting the second tranche of emergency subsidies should not be limited. The 18 million poorest Filipinos, including the 5 million wait-listed beneficiaries of the Social Amelioration Program, should receive both the first and second tranches of the Php5,000-Php8,000 per-month emergency aid, said the group.

The government said that only those residing in enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and modified ECQ areas will be getting a second tranche.

This is only 8.6 million families of the original 18 million target beneficiaries, and 3.5 million households of the five million wait-listed.

This also means that 10.6 million beneficiaries now in general community quarantine (GCQ) and modified (MGCQ) areas will have to make do with just their first tranche.

With the cost of living fast rising amid an even worsening pandemic, limiting the number of beneficiaries getting the second tranche of emergency aid is unconscionable, IBON said.

The government should even consider additional tranches for vulnerable households that continue to reel from lost livelihoods and income, said the group. #

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Kodao publishes IBON articles as part of a content-sharing agreement.

The anomaly of transport modernization (Part II)

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by Rosario Guzman

Read the first part here:

Government’s misplaced scheme

In many instances, the solution to the complex transport problems of Metro Manila lies in the physics of the problem, in the same way that dealing with COVID-19 requires medical science. But the Duterte administration has simply picked up its pre-COVID proposal of “jeepney modernization” and used the pandemic to justify finally pushing for it, amid protestations by jeepney drivers and the adverse impact on millions of commuters.

The government is a signatory to the Bangkok Declaration on Sustainable Transport Goals (Bangkok 2020) on “environmentally-sustainable” transport policy. This is also in relation to the ADB’s Sustainable Transport Initiative that is ultimately premised on the continuation of “free market” and “inclusive” economic growth. The Duterte government’s accomplishment in fulfilling Bangkok 2020 rests on the jeepney modernization program. Ultimately, this is important for the Duterte administration to attract transport infrastructure investments as well as to push for the sale of brand new, imported, so-called environment-friendly, and modern jeepneys.

Through the Omnibus Franchising Guidelines (OFG) that the DOTr issued on 19 June 2017, the government is requiring the make of the body and engine of the traditional jeepney to be compliant with the requirements set by the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB). These requirements definitely prioritize electric jeepneys (e-jeep), while pushing away the traditional jeepneys which need to go through numerous hurdles to get licensed to operate. These hurdles include: upgrading combustion engines to comply with Euro IV and similar emissions standards; complying with the LTFRB-set age-limit of oldest vehicle part; refurbishing and rebuilding that should pass the type approval system test; and still finally going through the Land Transportation Office (LTO) for a roadworthiness test to get registration renewal.

Concerned automotive engineers, scientists and mechanics contest the need to phase out traditional jeepneys and argue that the government should support locally manufactured environmental solutions. They also question the availability of the parts of the imported modern jeepneys in case of repairs, unlike with the traditional jeepneys that can be replaced easily. They also claim that the body engineering of the modern jeepneys is not suited to Metro Manila’s narrow roads and more prone to accidents. Environmentalists have also criticized the government’s going electric or Euro IV as hypocritical when its own energy program is reliant on coal and other fossil fuels.

But the OFG just keeps on narrowing the chances for traditional jeepneys to survive. The OFG also requires a fleet size of 15 units for any type of PUV for six months for new routes, which prevents small operators from applying for new franchises. Actually, even medium-scale operators – if they exist – are constrained and marginalized under the modernization program. The modern jeepney costs about Php1.6 million to as high as Php2.5 million, which means that an operator needs at least Php24 million to get a franchise.

The DOTr has stated that the government is not phasing out jeepneys but simply modernizing. However, the government plays with words. The jeepney modernization program will ultimately kill the livelihoods of thousands of jeepney drivers and complete the corporate capture of the ‘last-mile’ resort of millions of Filipino commuters.

Still pushing for Build, Build, Build and foreign ownership

The Duterte administration is also not compromising its Build, Build, Build (BBB) infrastructure projects, despite their questionable viability even before COVID-19 struck and their diminishing relevance now. Of the 100 infrastructure flagship projects (IFPs) worth Php4.3 trillion, 73 are for transport and mobility. The government does not have plans to strengthen economic production so the projects will just end up reinforcing a service economy dependent on import-export trade, foreign investments and tourism. Much of the construction materials used are even imported rather than produced locally.

The transport sector is reflective of how the government has lost its capacity to govern and manage public services because of privatization. This raises questions therefore on government’s absorptive capacity for such a grand infrastructure program. Four years into the ambitious BBB, there are only two (2) completed and nine (9) ongoing projects to date. The Duterte administration has even increased the IFPs from 75 to 100 to make BBB “more feasible”. But it appears that only 38 projects will be finished by the end of its term.

The future of BBB in the time of COVID-19 is precarious. But like a beaten beast, the Duterte administration refuses to yield. The pandemic is posing serious challenges to the continuation of BBB, apart from the program’s innate weakness of simply being aimed at attracting foreign investments and momentarily stimulating a slowing economy.

The most obvious challenge for the construction industry is physical distancing because  masses of workers need to gather to finish a project. The IATF suspended construction at the start of the lockdown but later allowed it, while passing on to the construction companies the responsibility of ensuring that workers comply with health protocols.

The next challenge is how travel restrictions and physical distancing will certainly dampen transport, travel and tourism businesses, and foreign trade and investment for a long time. These are the sectors that BBB wishes to be relevant for – but they are less and less important for the economy’s survival in the time of COVID-19.

Another challenge is the commercial viability of the projects on which they are all premised. Instead of catering to genuine public service, the completed projects are designed to be run by private transport corporations who will collect user-fees for their profitability and sustainability. The most expensive BBB projects are mass commuter railways whose viability depends on expensive fares that will be beyond the reach of the majority of the poor and working people.

But the greatest challenge is how BBB’s socially inappropriate orientation can be shifted to support the proper health response to COVID-19. The pandemic has revealed how weak our health system is – lacking facilities and equipment, lacking health personnel, and even lacking the means to transport health personnel. Not a few health frontliners have had fatal road accidents biking to work due to lack of transport support from the government. There is not even a single health infrastructure facility in the IFP lineup. The administration has made pronouncements that it would reorient BBB to respond to the health crisis but has yet to release a new IFP list.

Meanwhile, one priority legislation of the administration is the amendment of the Public Services Act (PSA). On March 10, just before the lockdown, the House of Representatives passed on final reading House Bill (HB) 78 to amend the PSA. It is now at the Senate for deliberation and approval. These amendments include narrowly defining public utilities to bypass Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership. Sectors considered public services, transportation included, can be opened up to complete foreign ownership. This further undermines public interest and national development. The PSA amendments will pave the way for the full foreign ownership of the mass transport system and government’s eventual surrender to private transport and transport infrastructure corporations.

The right direction

The Duterte government can address the transport crisis in the time of COVID-19 and in fact can look at the pandemic as an opportunity to overhaul the system. The health protocols may be followed indeed if only the government recognizes and addresses the transport crisis in a scientific manner.

There should be a first-step long-term modal shift from road to rail. The government can start by upgrading and adding rolling stock and rails to the train system. The corporations and officials of government agencies who forged lopsided privatization contracts should be held liable for poor service including breakdowns and accidents. The Philippines is among the first countries in Asia to have an urban rail system and has a long history of government running rail transport systems. These assets can be nationalized again and returned to public control. Rail transport can then be central to urban planning as well as to the dispersal of economic activities to the rural areas.

An efficient rail transport system, not to mention fully linked and accessible, will be the basis of an equally efficient route rationalization plan for PUBs and PUVs. The government should seriously conduct its own study to identify where the mass of commuters can have the most optimal travel time, including number of stops, from their workplaces to their homes. This should also include designation of walkways and bike lanes. It should not rely on self-interested privatization stakeholders to make such studies.

For a route rationalization plan to be truly systematic, PUBs and PUVs along with rail should be publicly run. Government can start by organizing PUBs and PUVs into cooperatives rather than allowing only single or corporate proprietorship of large fleets. It can also incentivize cooperatives to improve their service and compliance. Then, government can move on to careful consolidation of fleets through joint ventures and eventual nationalization. Such crucial steps will finally make PUB and PUV modes more economical and fares more affordable.

The DOTr is proposing to introduce service contract arrangements with private transport operators for the “new normal”. It also aims to shift from the “boundary system” to daily fixed wage for drivers and conductors so they can have steady incomes regardless of reduced ridership. This sounds acceptable, especially if we consider that transport groups have long been clamoring for government to abolish the “boundary system” to avoid competition-driven stresses, road hazards, and transport unpredictability.

However, the DOTr proposal remains outside the vision of living wages for transport workers, promoting their welfare and strengthening their unions, subsidizing commuters and controlling fares, and diminishing competition among the private contractors with stronger public control. In short, the current proposal should be within the framework of nationalization, lest it end up being another privatization contract.

The proposal is welcome if it is not being done in the context of the government’s jeepney modernization program. The Duterte administration cannot even give sufficient social amelioration to displaced drivers and conductors during a pandemic.

Moreover, government should once and for all restrain the explosive private car sales that defies all public mass transport logic. These just give the automotive corporations maximum returns on their businesses.

Finally, the pandemic gives us the vast opportunity to rethink sustainable development perspectives. The need for agrarian development and national industrialization cannot be overemphasized. But the government can start with arresting the anarchic building of offices especially for business process outsourcing and online gambling, shopping malls, hotels and leisure structures, residential and private subdivisions, and condominiums. Metro Manila’s urban development Is geared to increasing real estate profits and the wealth of the country’s economic oligarchs at the expense of public mobility and welfare.

Government can start by planning an economy that genuinely addresses severe inequalities existing pre-COVID-19 that, without corrective steps, will persist even far beyond. #